Ukraine and Russia Make Progress on Peace Plan, Including Ceasefire and Russian Withdrawal

Strategic Insights -

Progress has been made in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on a tentative peace plan, including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces. The 15-point draft plan would involve Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join NATO and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK, and Turkey.

The plan has been discussed in full for the first time by negotiators, but obstacles remain, including the nature of western guarantees for Ukrainian security and the status of Ukrainian territories seized by Russia and its proxies in 2014. Ukrainian officials are skeptical of Russia's commitment to peace, fearing that Moscow could be buying time to regroup and resume its offensive.

Key Takeaways:

  • The 15-point draft peace plan involves Kyiv renouncing its ambitions to join NATO and promising not to host foreign military bases or weaponry in exchange for protection from allies such as the US, UK, and Turkey.
  • The plan requires Ukrainian neutrality, with the status of Austria or Sweden cited as a possibility.
  • Naftali Bennett, Israel's premier, has been the primary global mediator in the negotiations.
  • Over 5 people briefed on the talks said that the proposed settlement, if agreed, could give both sides a credible way to declare victory in the war.
  • Dmitry Peskov, Putin's press secretary, stated that neutrality for Ukraine based on the status of Austria or Sweden is a possibility.
  • Ukrainian cities, including Mariupol, came under heavy shelling for a third night, with Russian troops bombing and destroying a theater where hundreds of people had taken shelter.
  • Joe Biden has approved a package of military aid for Ukraine, including anti-aircraft weapons and drones, totaling $800mn.

Statistics:

  • Over 200 Ukrainian cities and towns have remained under Russian control since February 24.
  • Nearly 400 people in Mariupol were killed when Russian troops bombed and destroyed a theater.
  • $800mn worth of military aid has been approved by Joe Biden for Ukraine.
  • 15 points make up the proposed draft peace plan between Ukraine and Russia.

Sources:

  • Five people briefed on the talks
  • Two of the people familiar with the discussions
  • Naftali Bennett, Israel's premier
  • Mykhailo Podolyak, senior adviser to Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president
  • Dmitry Peskov, Putin's press secretary
  • Joe Biden, US president
  • Laura Pitel, additional reporting in Ankara
  • Henry Foy, additional reporting in Brussels