Uncertainties Rise as US Prepares for Possible War Against Iraq

Strategic Insights -

The United States has warned that any allied attack on Iraq could result in a revenge attack on Israel by Baghdad, introducing new uncertainties into the conflict. In a statement, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright admitted that her country would permit Israel to defend itself in the event of an attack, potentially leading to a wider war. Meanwhile, Defence Secretary William Cohen emphasized that air attacks on Iraq would not remove President Saddam Hussein from power or eliminate his arsenal of deadly weapons, rather they would only curtail his ability to make germ warfare.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US has warned that any allied attack on Iraq could lead to a revenge attack on Israel, potentially widening the conflict.
  • US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright admitted that the US would permit Israel to defend itself in the event of an attack, raising concerns about a possible wider war.
  • Defence Secretary William Cohen stated that air attacks on Iraq would not remove President Saddam Hussein from power or eliminate his arsenal of deadly weapons.
  • Cohen emphasized that military action was "no adequate substitute" for having United Nations weapons inspectors scrutinizing sites on the ground.
  • The US is prepared to use "substantial force" if diplomacy fails to end Iraq's obstruction of United Nations inspectors.
  • Any Iraqi threat to attack other states in the region would not go unpunished, according to Albright.
  • President Clinton's Cabinet is divided on the issue, with Cohen expressing cautious expectations about the effectiveness of air attacks.

Statistics:

  • The US has been building up its military presence in the region, with "substantial force" prepared for deployment if diplomacy fails.
  • The war could last for several weeks, with Western diplomats predicting a maximum of two weeks before airstrikes are launched.
  • The US lacks complete information about the exact locations of Saddam's stockpiles and weapons factories.
  • Up to 70% of عراق's weapons capabilities could be rebuilt after a bombing campaign.
  • Intelligence officials have told Congress that enormous gaps exist in America's knowledge about Saddam's capabilities.

Sources:

  • The Times, 1998, (no specific date mentioned)
  • State Department, quote from US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
  • Pentagon, quote from Defence Secretary William Cohen
  • Congress, testimony from top intelligence officials
  • Western diplomats, prediction of maximum two weeks before airstrikes are launched