Uncertainty in Forest Development Under Climate Change

Strategic Insights -

Researchers at the Georg-August-University in Göttingen, Germany, have made significant discoveries regarding the impact of climate change on forest development. By analyzing the uncertainty of forest development over 50 years, focusing primarily on Scots pine, they found that mortality doubles depending on the species. The study also concluded that forest restoration outcomes are uncertain, with stand-losses accelerating restoration by up to 10% while tree-losses may slow it down. The research suggests that more differentiated silvicultural concepts are necessary for actively adapting forests to alarming changes.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that mortality doubles depending on the species, with the most important tree species in northern Germany being Scots pine.
  • Forest restoration outcomes are uncertain, with stand-losses accelerating restoration by up to 10% and tree-losses potentially slowing it down.
  • Under disturbances, volume increment and stand age decrease, while harvests rise in the medium-term with large dimensioned timber increasing fivefold.
  • The decline in yield and the remaining 40% monocultures are critical, driven by climate change and forest demographics.
  • The research suggests that more differentiated silvicultural concepts are necessary for actively adapting forests to alarming changes.
  • The study analyzed uncertainty in forest development over 50 years, using 17,551 National Forest Inventory plots in northern Germany.

Statistics:

  • Mortality doubles depending on the species.
  • Forest restoration outcomes are uncertain, with a 10% acceleration of restoration by stand-losses and a potential slowdown by tree-losses.
  • Volume increment and stand age decrease under disturbances.
  • Harvests rise in the medium-term with large dimensioned timber increasing fivefold.
  • The decline in yield is critical, with 40% monocultures remaining.

Sources:

  • "Hope for the Best, Expect the Worst: Including Disturbances In Simulations As Tree- or Stand-wise Mortality Increases Uncertainty for North German Scots Pine Forestry," Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2025.
  • Springer (www.springer.com).
  • Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (www.springerlink.com/content/1436-3240/).