US and Israel at Odds Over Iran: A Web of Uncertainty

Strategic Insights -

The US president, Donald Trump, claimed on May 28 that he personally intervened to stop Israel from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities during a phone call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This revelation has sparked intense debate over the contrasting views of the two countries on Iran's nuclear program. Middle East expert Scott Lucas sheds light on the underlying reasons for the disagreement and its potential implications for US-Israel relations.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US and Israel are at odds over how to deal with Iran, with the US prioritizing a diplomatic solution and Israel emphasizing the need for Iran to dismantle its nuclear facilities.
  • Israel has long been skeptical of diplomatic overtures to Tehran, citing Iran's commitment to Israel's destruction.
  • Trump's main focus is on portraying himself as a "dealmaker," rather than achieving a substantive agreement.
  • The US wants a nuclear deal with Iran, while Israel insists on a dismantling of Iran's nuclear facilities.
  • Trump's previous attempts at making breakthroughs in nuclear talks have been met with criticism, such as his North Korea deal, which was nothing more than a meaningless one-page memorandum.
  • Trump's comments on Iran are out of touch with reality, as evidenced by his claim that Russia's President Vladimir Putin is "absolutely crazy."
  • The Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are rivals of Iranian regional leadership but want to avoid Israeli military action against Tehran.
  • These countries are seeking to extract themselves from the decade-long war in Yemen and want space for Syria to develop after the Assad family rule.
  • Iran agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) in 2015, limiting uranium enrichment to 3.67% and shipping out 20% grade stocks.
  • Trump pulled the US out of the JCPoA in May 2018 and imposed comprehensive sanctions, which led Iran to resume 20% enrichment and begin production of 60% uranium.
  • Tehran has stated that it will forego any potential for a military program in a renewed agreement with the US but is refusing US demands to end enrichment for civil purposes.
  • Israeli intelligence and military institutions have opposed Netanyahu's plans to attack Iran, raising political, diplomatic, and logistical obstacles.
  • Netanyahu could defy Trump and order military strikes, but such action would alienate Israel from the international community and risk regional conflicts.

Statistics:

  • Iran's uranium enrichment limit under the JCPoA: 3.67% (2015)
  • Year Trump pulled the US out of the JCPoA: 2018
  • Time Iran restarted its nuclear program after Trump's withdrawal: 2018
  • Percentage of uranium enrichment Iran resumed: 20%
  • Percentage of uranium enrichment Iran began producing: 60%
  • Year Trump reportedly told Netanyahu to "do what you have to do" in the offensive against Hamas: 2024
  • Month Trump said "Bibi, you do whatever you want" to Netanyahu: February 2025

Sources:

  • The Conversation -- UK -- By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin
  • Why are the US and Israel not on the same page over how to deal with Iran? Expert Q&A (https://theconversation.com/why-are-the-us-and-israel-not-on-the-same-page-over-how-to-deal-with-iran-expert-qanda-257758)