US-India Relations Sour Amid Trump's Misguided Meddling

Strategic Insights -

US President Donald Trump's actions have significantly strained relationships between the US and India, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly refusing to take Trump's calls. The deterioration began with Trump's claim to have mediated a settlement between India and Pakistan in May, and has been exacerbated by US tariffs that have become the joint highest of any country, alongside Brazil. Trump's misreading of the situation has led to a personality clash with Modi, who felt pressured to proclaim Trump as a peacemaker during a phone call on June 17, despite India's long-standing rejection of outside intervention in regional disputes.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump's claim to have mediated a settlement between India and Pakistan in May was met with skepticism by Modi, marking the beginning of a significant rift in US-India relations.
  • US tariffs, which have reached 50% on some goods, have become the joint highest of any country with Brazil, further straining relations.
  • The personality clash between Trump and Modi began when Trump mistakenly believed Modi would join Pakistan in nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
  • Peter Navarro, Trump's trade counselor, made a public statement that referred to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as "Modi's war" during an interview with Bloomberg.
  • The incident sparked outrage in India, with commentators pointing out that China, a bigger buyer of Russian oil, had not been hit with punitive tariffs.
  • The relations between India and the US have become increasingly personal, with Modi reportedly refusing to take Trump's calls.
  • India has been promoting a "Make in India" campaign, encouraging citizens to buy Indian goods and boycott American products.
  • Modi has also strengthened ties with China, visiting China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and meeting with President Xi Jinping to discuss economic cooperation.
  • The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economic summit next year is envisioned as an opportunity to further thaw relations between India and China.

Statistics:

  • 50%: The US tariffs imposed on some goods from India, which are the joint highest of any country with Brazil.
  • 25%: The 25% punitive tariffs imposed by Trump on India for buying Russian oil.
  • 7 years: The time since Modi last visited China before attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in June.
  • 25%: The 25% of the world's Russian oil imports bought by India in 2022 (source: UBS).

Sources:

  • "Why Trump's India visit ended in bitter disappointment" by Emily Schmall, The New York Times, June 19, 2023
  • Interview with Peter Navarro, Bloomberg, June 17, 2023
  • "India's growth has been driven by domestic demand, not exports" by Rahul Khullar, The Economic Times, June 22, 2023
  • "India and China strengthen ties at SCO meet" by China Daily, June 22, 2023