US Policy in Iraq: A Shifting Landscape

Strategic Insights -

As George W. Bush's administration struggles to contain the insurgency in Iraq, whispers of a possible US withdrawal are growing louder. Public resolve is faltering, and the emphasis has shifted from spreading democracy to achieving stability in the region. The continued occupation has sparked deepening private doubts among Republicans and Democrats alike, with the latter questioning the cost of occupation should John Kerry win the November election.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US does not have a clear strategy to rescue Iraq, with public resolve hiding deepening private doubt in Washington.
  • The administration's policies focus on responding to crises rather than developing a comprehensive plan to achieve stability in Iraq.
  • Republicans are divided, with neoconservatives holding fast to their vision of Iraq as a key piece of a grand project to remake the Middle East, while others press for a more pragmatic approach.
  • Democrats, including John Kerry, are increasingly questioning the cost of occupation and the role of the US in achieving stability in Iraq.
  • The US has lost control of the situation in Iraq, with no clear plan in place to restore order and achieve its objectives.
  • The concept of "stability" in Iraq is ill-defined, with many questioning what it means and how it can be achieved.
  • Some within the administration, such as Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, recognize the need to redefine the mission and lower US ambitions in order to salvage some pride.
  • The circumstances of the US eventual exit from Iraq will determine its power and role in the world for decades to come.

Statistics:

  • $25 billion requested from Congress for additional funding for the occupation of Iraq.
  • Estimated number of US troops committed to Iraq until the end of 2006: over 150,000.
  • Number of US casualties in Iraq since the start of the conflict: over 1,500.
  • Number of Iraqi prisoners subjected to abuse: over 100.
  • Estimated cost of occupation per day: over $50 million.

Sources:

  • Philip Stephens, "Some things cannot yet be said out loud," Financial Times, April 2004.
  • Philip Stephens, "The US must redefine its mission in Iraq," Financial Times, May 2004.
  • Richard Armitage, Deputy Secretary of State, testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, June 2004.
  • George W. Bush, Address to the American people, April 2004.