US Wheat Futures Decline Amid Uncertain Crop Weather Forecasts

Strategic Insights -

Uncertain crop weather forecasts and weak e-CBOT trade led to a decline in US wheat futures on July 19, 2005. The National Weather Service forecast wetter weather for the Midwest, pressuring overnight trade for corn and soybean futures. Despite an expected buildup in US wheat ending stocks this year, several grain analysts expect pricing to continue to be influenced by corn prices, which have rallied to a one-year top due to fears of crop losses.

Key Takeaways:

  • US wheat futures declined by 1-2 cents per bushel on July 19, 2005, due to weak e-CBOT trade and uncertain crop weather forecasts.
  • The National Weather Service forecast wetter weather for the Midwest, which pressured overnight trade for corn and soybean futures.
  • CBOT corn futures were called to open flat to down 1 cent, while soybean futures were expected to open down 2-4 cents per bushel.
  • The US Department of Agriculture reported that the US spring wheat crop was 75% in good to excellent condition, down 3 percentage points from last week.
  • First resistance for CBOT December wheat was seen at $3.68, while first support was at $3.65.
  • The US wheat export business was quiet overnight, with the dollar higher as a bearish factor for US grain exports.
  • Panamax-size cargoes were offered at $37-$38 a metric ton on the benchmark route from the US Gulf to Japan, down from last week's $39/ton.

Statistics:

  • US wheat futures declined by 1-2 cents per bushel on July 19, 2005.
  • The National Weather Service forecast wetter weather for the Midwest, which pressured overnight trade for corn and soybean futures.
  • The US spring wheat crop was 75% in good to excellent condition, down 3 percentage points from last week.
  • CBOT corn futures were called to open flat to down 1 cent.
  • Soybean futures were expected to open down 2-4 cents per bushel.
  • First resistance for CBOT December wheat was at $3.68, while first support was at $3.65.
  • Panamax-size cargoes were offered at $37-$38 a metric ton on the benchmark route from the US Gulf to Japan.

Sources:

  • Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex, Jul 19, 2005
  • The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
  • The US Department of Agriculture
  • Susan Schwendener, Dow Jones Newswires