USDA Forecasts Slight Increase in US Ag Trade Deficit

Strategic Insights -

The US agricultural trade deficit is expected to slightly rise to $49.5 billion in fiscal year 2025, up from the previously forecasted $49 billion, according to the USDA's quarterly trade outlook report. The ag trade deficit would surpass the previous record of $31.8 billion set in 2024. The report, dated May 29 but released on June 2, projects US ag exports to total $170.5 billion, while imports are estimated to reach $220 billion.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US ag trade deficit is forecast to increase to $49.5 billion in fiscal year 2025, up from the $49 billion forecasted in February.
  • The ag trade deficit would exceed the previous record of $31.8 billion set in 2024.
  • US ag exports are projected to reach $170.5 billion, while imports are estimated to reach $220 billion.
  • Grain and feed export values are expected to decrease to $37.9 billion, down from $38.8 billion in FY 2024.
  • Oilseeds and products exports are projected to decline to $33.2 billion, down from $36 billion in 2024.
  • Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are expected to rise to $38.8 billion, but down $900 million from the February forecast.
  • Horticultural products are projected to continue growing year-over-year, reaching $41.2 billion in 2025.
  • Ethanol exports are expected to increase to $4.3 billion, an increase from $4.17 billion in 2024.
  • US agricultural exports to China are forecast to decrease to $18.5 billion, down $3.5 billion from the February forecast.

Statistics:

  • The US ag trade deficit is expected to rise to $49.5 billion in 2025.
  • US ag exports are projected to reach $170.5 billion.
  • US ag imports are estimated to reach $220 billion.
  • Grain and feed export values are expected to decrease to $37.9 billion.
  • Oilseeds and products exports are projected to decline to $33.2 billion.
  • Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are expected to rise to $38.8 billion.
  • Horticultural products are projected to reach $41.2 billion in 2025.
  • Ethanol exports are expected to increase to $4.3 billion.
  • US agricultural exports to China are forecast to decrease to $18.5 billion.

Sources:

  • USDA Quarterly Trade Outlook Report (dated May 29, released on June 2)
  • Statement by USDA spokesperson Alec Varsamis
  • "USDA trade outlook report forecasts slight increase in US ag trade deficit" (FarmWeek, June 2)
  • "Trump announces sweeping global tariffs" (Politico, April 5)
  • "US and China agree to pause tariffs" (Reuters, December 11, 2019)
  • "US and China trade tensions escalate" (Bloomberg, February 18)