Vaccination Benefits Outweigh Risks for Children

Strategic Insights -

A recent study suggests that two doses of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine could potentially protect children from thousands of cases of long Covid, especially in areas with high case rates. The research, conducted by a team of researchers from Queen Mary University of London and other institutions, used historical rates of hospital admission, intensive care support, and death among children in England who had Covid-19. The study found that vaccination is warranted for 12- to 17-year-olds in England, especially in areas with high case rates.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study suggests that two doses of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine can potentially protect children from thousands of cases of long Covid.
  • The researchers used historic rates of hospital admission, intensive care support, and death among children in England who had Covid-19 to conduct a risk/benefit analysis.
  • The study found that vaccination is warranted for 12- to 17-year-olds in England, especially in areas with high case rates.
  • According to the study, if cases fall to 50 per 100,000, an estimated 70 admissions and two deaths could be avoided over 16 weeks.
  • If cases rose to 1000 per week, full vaccination of 12-17-year-olds could aver 4,430 hospital admissions and 36 deaths over 16 weeks.
  • The study also estimates that double vaccination would avert 56,000, 16,000, or 8,000 cases (based on long Covid rates among 12-17-year-olds of 14 percent, 4 percent, and 2 percent).
  • The researchers say that the benefit of vaccination in terms of hospitalizations in adolescents outweighs risks unless case rates are sustainably very low (below 30/100,000 teenagers/week).
  • Deepti Gurdasani, lead author of the study, notes that "while we wait to understand the long-term effects of Covid-19 on children, the precautionary principle advocates for protecting all children from exposure to this virus and vaccination is a crucial part of that protection."

Statistics:

  • 680 out of every 100,000 10-19-year-olds were contracting coronavirus every week as of September 15.
  • If cases rose to 1000 per week, full vaccination of 12-17-year-olds could aver 4,430 hospital admissions and 36 deaths over 16 weeks.
  • An estimated 70 admissions and two deaths could be avoided over 16 weeks if cases fell to 50 per 100,000.
  • Double vaccination would avert 56,000, 16,000, or 8,000 cases (based on long Covid rates among 12-17-year-olds of 14 percent, 4 percent, and 2 percent).

Sources:

  • The Telegraph
  • Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine
  • Sky News
  • Queen Mary University of London
  • University College London
  • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine