Via ++t Nam's Rice Exports Face Pressure Amid Uncertain Philippine Import Ban

Strategic Insights -

The Philippine government may extend the rice import ban, which could significantly impact Via ++t Nam's rice exports in early 2026, as the country enters its winter-spring harvest season. The ban extension would weigh on key suppliers, including Via ++t Nam, which has seen a 43% drop in September shipments and a 55% decline in value. The Philippines has already imported 3.5 million tonnes of rice since the ban took effect, mostly from Via ++t Nam, its top supplier. Analysts warn of oversupply and weaker prices through the end of the year if the restriction continues.

Key Takeaways:

  • Via ++t Nam's rice exports are expected to face significant pressure early next year due to the Philippine government's possible extension of the rice import ban.
  • The ban extension could weigh on Via ++t Nam's exports in the first quarter of 2026, when the main winter-spring crop reaches the market.
  • Via ++t Nam's September shipments dropped 43% in volume to 466,800 tonnes and 55% in value to $232 million.
  • The country's main rice importers are Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Malaysia.
  • To reduce reliance on a single market, experts recommend that Via ++t Nam diversify into African, Middle Eastern, and South Asian markets.
  • The Philippines' emergency rice procurement programme aims to protect domestic farmers from further losses by expanding storage capacity, introducing a nationwide floor price, and considering higher import tariffs.
  • Via ++t Nam spent $1.51 billion importing rice in the first nine months of 2025, highlighting a potential risk for one of the world's top exporters.

Statistics:

  • Via ++t Nam's 5% broken fragrant rice is currently quoted at $450 per tonne, jasmine at $490, and 100% broken rice at $310-314 (VFA).
  • Via ++t Nam exported 6.83 million tonnes of rice worth $3.49 billion in the first nine months of 2025, down 2% in volume and nearly 20% in value year-on-year.
  • Average export prices fell to $509 per tonne during the same period.
  • Ghana accounted for 22% of Via ++t Nam's total exports, followed by Ivory Coast with 21% and Malaysia with 10% (VFA).
  • 3.5 million tonnes of rice have been imported by the Philippines since the ban took effect, mostly from Via ++t Nam.
  • Local rice prices have risen by 28% since the ban took effect, though they remain 27% lower than a year earlier.

Sources:

  • Vietnam Food Association (VFA)
  • Ministry of Agriculture and Environment
  • Department of Agriculture, Philippines
  • Vietnam Food Association (VFA) statistics and quotes