Vietnam Construction Market to Grow by 6% in 2025 Amidst Uncertainty of US Trade War

Strategic Insights -

Vietnam's construction industry is expected to grow by 6% in real terms in 2025, fueled by increased public and private sector investment in housing and power construction projects as part of the 2025 budget. The National Assembly of Vietnam approved a budget of VND2.1 quadrillion ($86.3 billion) in December 2024, representing a 21.4% increase from 2024. However, the uncertainty of a trade war with the US, triggered by President Trump's imposition of a 46% duty on Vietnamese imports in early April 2025, poses a significant downside risk to the industry's output. Despite this, the construction industry is projected to register an annual average growth rate of 7.1% from 2026 to 2029, driven by government investments in transport infrastructure and housing projects.

Key Takeaways:

  • The construction industry in Vietnam is expected to grow by 6% in real terms in 2025, driven by increased public and private sector investment.
  • The National Assembly of Vietnam approved a budget of VND2.1 quadrillion ($86.3 billion) in December 2024, a 21.4% increase from 2024.
  • The uncertainty of a trade war with the US poses a significant downside risk to the industry's output, with potential impacts on the country's GDP target of 8% in 2025.
  • The construction industry is projected to register an annual average growth rate of 7.1% from 2026 to 2029, driven by government investments in transport infrastructure and housing projects.
  • The Vietnamese government plans to begin construction on nine major railway lines, estimated at VND1.8 quadrillion ($67 billion), before 2030.
  • The country aims to modernize and significantly expand its rail network.
  • Major projects include rail infrastructure development, alongside other sectors such as commercial, industrial, and residential construction.

Statistics:

  • The construction industry in Vietnam is expected to grow by 6% in real terms in 2025.
  • The National Assembly of Vietnam approved a budget of VND2.1 quadrillion ($86.3 billion) in December 2024.
  • The trade war with the US poses a significant downside risk, with potential impacts on the country's GDP target of 8% in 2025, and a 10% drop in Vietnamese shipments to the US cutting GDP growth by 0.84%.
  • The country's construction industry is projected to register an annual average growth rate of 7.1% from 2026 to 2029.
  • The Vietnamese government plans to spend VND1.8 quadrillion ($67 billion) on nine major railway lines before 2030.

Sources:

  • "Vietnam Construction Market Size, Trends, and Forecasts by Sector - Commercial, Industrial, Infrastructure, Energy and Utilities, Institutional and Residential Market Analysis to 2029 (Q2 2025)" report.
  • National Assembly of Vietnam, 2025 budget approval.
  • US President Donald Trump's trade policies and tariffs on Vietnamese imports.
  • ResearchAndMarkets.com, "Vietnam Construction Market Size, Trends, and Forecasts by Sector - Commercial, Industrial, Infrastructure, Energy and Utilities, Institutional and Residential Market Analysis to 2029 (Q2 2025)" report.
  • BusinessWire, "Vietnam Construction Market Size, Trends, and Forecasts by Sector - Commercial, Industrial, Infrastructure, Energy and Utilities, Institutional and Residential Market Analysis to 2029 (Q2 2025)" report.