Vietnam's Agro-Forestry-Fishery Sector Demonstrates Resilience Amid Global Headwinds

Strategic Insights -

As the world grapples with mounting trade tensions and shifting market dynamics, Vietnam's agro-forestry-fishery sector has shown remarkable resilience, posting a promising start with an export revenue of $33.5 billion USD. The sector is poised to reach its target of $65 billion USD for the year, with key commodities such as coffee, tea, and pepper expected to maintain export momentum. Despite challenges in traditional markets, the sector is diversifying into new markets, including the EU, China, and the Middle East, to compensate for any decline in US market share.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has set a roadmap for the remainder of the year, targeting $14-15 billion USD in Q3 and at least $16 billion USD in Q4, capitalizing on the surge in global demand during the year-end holiday season.
  • Key commodities, including coffee, tea, pepper, cashews, rubber, and livestock products, are expected to contribute significantly to the $65 billion USD target, with coffee exports estimated to reach $7.5 billion USD by year-end, up 36.9% year-on-year.
  • Vietnam is diversifying its trade agreements to boost sales in emerging markets, including India, Russia, Turkey, Indonesia, and the RoK, while leveraging trade agreements to access higher-value markets, such as Japan, Germany, and Malaysia.
  • The cashew sector has set an export target of $4.5 billion USD for 2025, a modest 2.7% increase compared to 2024, while the rubber sector aims to reach $3.3 billion USD for the whole year.
  • Livestock products are emerging as a high-potential growth segment, buoyed by expanded market access, with processed chicken being sold in Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan.
  • The sector is facing intense pressure from tax policies in the US market, with wood and wood products facing the greatest pressure, while the fisheries sector is under pressure with the US's reciprocal duties and declining consumer demand for shrimp and salmon.
  • Vietnam is prioritizing catfish exports while strengthening compliance with marine protection standards in this market and expanding into Chinese fresh products, EU value-added exports, and Middle Eastern markets.

Statistics:

  • Vietnam's agro-forestry-fishery sector achieved an export revenue of $33.5 billion USD in the first half of the year.
  • The sector is targeting $65 billion USD for the year, with a roadmap for Q3 and Q4 to reach $14-15 billion USD and at least $16 billion USD, respectively.
  • Coffee exports are estimated to reach $7.5 billion USD by year-end, up 36.9% year-on-year.
  • The cashew sector has set an export target of $4.5 billion USD for 2025, a modest 2.7% increase compared to 2024.
  • The rubber sector aims to reach $3.3 billion USD for the whole year.
  • Livestock products are emerging as a high-potential growth segment, with processed chicken being sold in Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan.
  • The fisheries sector is targeting $10.5 billion USD this year, with a focus on catfish exports and expanded market access to China, the EU, and Middle Eastern markets.

Sources:

  • Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment
  • Vietnam News Agency (VNA)
  • Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam (MOIT)
  • Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries of Japan (MAFF)
  • European Commission
  • World Trade Organization (WTO)