Vietnam's Renewable Energy Transition: A Path to Net Zero by 2050

Strategic Insights -

Vietnam, committed to achieving Net Zero emissions by 2050, is at the forefront of renewable energy transition. A recent study by the Institute of Energy, published in AIMS Energy, investigates optimal generation expansion pathways to meet this ambitious target. The research, aligned with the Power Development Plan VIII (PDP VIII), reveals a promising future for renewable energy in Vietnam.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study compares two planning approaches with three scenarios to determine the optimal pathway to Net Zero emissions by 2050.
  • Scenario S3, which constrains CO2 emissions directly, yields the lowest total system cost while meeting the Net Zero target.
  • The optimal strategy in S3 involves early decommissioning of thermal plants and prioritizing renewable energy and storage expansion over thermal fuel conversion.
  • By 2050 under S3, renewables will contribute to 95% of energy generation, with thermal power dropping to 5%.
  • CO2 emissions peak in 2030 in all scenarios, earlier than defined by PDP VIII.
  • The study highlights the critical need for energy storage, flexible generation, and significant high-voltage direct current transmission capacity from South Central to North Vietnam after 2030.
  • The full utilization of ground-mounted solar potential suggests a need for expanded land allocation if available.
  • Prioritizing renewable energy, storage, and transmission investment is crucial for an efficient Net Zero transition.
  • The Institute of Energy emphasizes the importance of early decommissioning of thermal plants and the adoption of renewable energy and storage expansion.

Statistics:

  • By 2050, renewables will contribute to 95% of energy generation in Vietnam.
  • Thermal power will drop to 5% of energy generation in Vietnam by 2050.
  • CO2 emissions will peak in 2030 in all scenarios.
  • The total system cost under Scenario S3 is the lowest among the three scenarios.
  • The scenario with early decommissioning of thermal plants and prioritizing renewable energy and storage expansion over thermal fuel conversion yields the lowest total system cost.

Sources:

  • AIMS Energy. (2025). Generation expansion planning toward Net Zero target considering co-firing green fuel, CCUS installation and early decommissioning in thermal power plants: A case study of Vietnam. 13(3), 540-568.
  • NewsRx. (2025, September 8). Research from Institute of Energy Has Provided New Data on Renewable Energy (Generation expansion planning toward Net Zero target considering co-firing green fuel, CCUS installation and early decommissioning in thermal power plants: A case study of Vietnam). Global Warming Focus, 286.