Virginia Republicans Sound Alarm Bells Over Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears's Gubernatorial Campaign

Strategic Insights -

Virginia Republican operatives and strategists are raising concerns about the state of Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears's (R) campaign in the closely watched gubernatorial race, fueled by recent polling and fundraising disparities and a staffing shake-up. As polls show Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger in the lead, some Republicans are warning that further shake-ups are needed if they want to win in what is seen as the most significant bellwether this year. The concerns have been exacerbated by a recent campaign shake-up involving Earle-Sears's campaign manager, Will Archer, who was removed from his post but will remain on her campaign in a different capacity.

Key Takeaways:

  • Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears trails her opponent, Abigail Spanberger, in fundraising, with Spanberger raising $27 million since entering the race and Earle-Sears raising $11 million.
  • A Virginia Commonwealth University poll released last week showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears with 49 percent support to 37 percent among registered voters in the state.
  • The poll also showed downballot race margins mirroring the top of the ticket, with concerns that Earle-Sears's standing could drag down the rest of the Republican ticket.
  • Republicans have expressed concern over the optics of the shake-up involving Archer, who worked as a pastor prior to joining the campaign, and the exit of Earle-Sears's former political director, Richard Wagner.
  • GOP strategist Bob Holsworth warned that if Earle-Sears can't raise a lot of money soon, there may be a sense that the best thing to do is try to salvage the campaign of Attorney General Jason Miyares, who has nearly $7 million cash on hand.

Statistics:

  • Abigail Spanberger has raised $27 million since entering the gubernatorial race, trailing Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears's $11 million.
  • A Virginia Commonwealth University poll showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears with 49 percent support to 37 percent among registered voters.
  • Earle-Sears's campaign announced its "best single fundraising day" since launch, but did not publicly disclose how much it had raised.
  • Spanberger's campaign reported a massive second-quarter fundraising haul of $10.7 million.
  • Earle-Sears has raised over $4 million cash on hand, while Spanberger has more than $15 million in the bank.

Sources:

  • The Hill
  • Virginia Public Access Project
  • Virginia Commonwealth University
  • The Hill
  • The Hill
  • Julia Manchester
  • Virginia Public Access Project