Virginia Republicans Weigh Fallback Option as Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears Campaign Struggles

Strategic Insights -

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) is facing stiff competition from Democratic opponent Abigail Spanberger in the state's gubernatorial election, prompting concern among national Republicans. A pair of fundraising letters from the Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) obtained by The Washington Post suggests that the group is urging donors to consider supporting the reelection bid of Attorney General Jason S. Miyares as a potential fallback position. RAGA argues that Miyares is the strongest Republican on the Virginia ballot in 2025 and could hold the party's line against Spanberger's priorities.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA) is urging donors to consider supporting the reelection bid of Attorney General Jason S. Miyares as a potential fallback position in the event that Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) struggles to gain ground against Democratic opponent Abigail Spanberger.
  • RAGA argues that Miyares is the strongest Republican on the Virginia ballot in 2025 and could hold the party's line against Spanberger's priorities.
  • The Earle-Sears campaign has been criticized for fundraising shortcomings and an idiosyncratic campaign style, with Spanberger outraising her by almost double since January and holding more than three times the cash on hand, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
  • Recent polls have shown Earle-Sears trailing Spanberger by seven percentage points among likely voters, outside the margin of error of plus or minus 4.39 points.
  • Down-ticket Republican candidates, including Attorney General Jason S. Miyares and Lieutenant Governor John Reid, are outperforming Earle-Sears in the polls.
  • RAGA has contributed more than $2 million to the Miyares campaign, while the Republican Governors Association has contributed significantly less to Earle-Sears, according to campaign finance reports analyzed by the Virginia Public Access Project.

Statistics:

  • Earle-Sears has raised $4.5 million this year, compared to $7.5 million raised by Miyares as of June 30, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
  • Miyares has $6.9 million in cash on hand, more than Earle-Sears's $4.5 million, according to VPAP.
  • Earle-Sears trails Spanberger by seven percentage points in a recent Roanoke College poll, outside the margin of error of plus or minus 4.39 points.
  • Down-ticket Republican candidates are outperforming Earle-Sears in the polls, with Attorney General Jason S. Miyares and Lieutenant Governor John Reid trailing their Democratic opponents by smaller margins.

Sources:

  • The Washington Post
  • Virginia Public Access Project
  • Roanoke College
  • Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA)
  • Republican Governors Association
  • Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP)