Virginia's 11th Congressional District Special Election Pits Conservative Against Democrat

Strategic Insights -

In a special election on Tuesday, Virginia's 11th Congressional District will choose a successor to the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Virginia), with Democratic nominee James Walkinshaw, a Fairfax County Supervisor and former chief of staff to Connolly, facing off against Republican Stewart Whitson, a legal director at a conservative think tank. Walkinshaw, who won the Democratic primary with a commanding 60% of the vote, is widely favored to win in the deep-blue district, which has been impacted by President Donald Trump's federal government cuts. Whitson, an Army veteran and former FBI official, has a platform aligned with Trump and has supported the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's cuts to the federal workforce.

Key Takeaways:

  • The 11th District has historically voted Democratic, with Rep. Gerry Connolly winning re-election by a comfortable margin, around 66% of the vote.
  • Democratic nominee James Walkinshaw is widely favored to win, having won the Democratic primary with 60% of the vote and having raised over $1 million in campaign funds.
  • Republican Stewart Whitson has a platform aligned with President Trump and has supported the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's cuts to the federal workforce.
  • Special elections in Virginia often draw a smaller turnout, but Walkinshaw is optimistic that the district's voters will show up to reject Trump and hopes to break Virginia records for special-election turnout.
  • Mark J. Rozell, dean of George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, said that a strong Democratic turnout in the district would be "very, very telling" and could indicate a larger trend in Democratic turnout.

Statistics:

  • 40,000 Democrats voted in the special primaries, 15 times the Republican turnout.
  • Walkinshaw has raised over $1 million to Whitson's $224,000.
  • 34 points is how much the 11th District voted for Kamala Harris over President Trump in the 2020 election.
  • 66% is the comfortable margin by which Rep. Gerry Connolly historically won re-election.
  • 60% is the percentage of the primary vote won by James Walkinshaw.

Sources:

  • Daniel Wu, The Washington Post
  • Mark J. Rozell, dean of George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government
  • James Walkinshaw campaign finance reports
  • Stewart Whitson, interview with The Washington Post