Volatility Ahead: Experts Warn of Uncertain International Trade Climate in 2026

Strategic Insights -

The global trade environment is bracing for a potentially tumultuous 2026, as a convergence of factors including US mid-term elections, the renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, and a Supreme Court decision on tariffs threatens to create a volatile market. "Buckle up," advised Vincent Caron, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce vice-president of policy, who spoke at the Greater Niagara Chamber of Commerce Niagara Economic Summit. "Next year, there are three things that will happen at the same time. You have the mid-term (U.S. elections) in the fall, you have the renegotiation of CUSMA, and you have the... Supreme Court decision on the tariffs."

Key Takeaways:

  • The Ontario Chamber of Commerce will be warning against throwing out the existing trade agreement in its entirety, as renegotiation of CUSMA is set to commence in 2026.
  • 33 per cent of the mining industry equipment produced by Haver & Boecker Canada at its St. Catharines plant is bound for US customers, with the company promoting the use of Canadian suppliers and machinery.
  • 95 per cent of Haver & Boecker's suppliers are Canadian, dealing with Niagara fabricators and machine shops, with a focus on buying local as a long-term solution.
  • The Greater Niagara Chamber of Commerce CEO Mishka Balsom warned that economic uncertainty will be long-term, but noted some Niagara industries are doing well, such as the alcohol beverage industry.
  • The provincial government's decision to remove US imports from LCBO store shelves has boosted optimism in the region's wineries and breweries.
  • The CUSMA trade agreement has made life easier for Haver & Boecker Canada, allowing easy access to US customers, but it now feels more like a memorandum of understanding that can be easily trashed.
  • The Greater Niagara Chamber of Commerce NIagara Economic Summit set a new record for ticket sales, with 350 attendees sold out faster than ever before due to the "changing climate and the uncertainty that we have."

Statistics:

  • 33 per cent of the mining industry equipment produced by Haver & Boecker Canada is bound for US customers.
  • 95 per cent of Haver & Boecker's suppliers are Canadian.
  • 350 attendees sold out of 350 tickets for the Niagara Economic Summit, setting a new record due to the changing climate and uncertainty.
  • Ontario Chamber of Commerce will be warning against throwing out the existing trade agreement in its entirety.

Sources:

  • Bob Tymczyszyn / St. Catharines Standard
  • The Ontario Chamber of Commerce
  • Haver & Boecker Canada
  • Greater Niagara Chamber of Commerce
  • Bob Tymczyszyn / St. Catharines Standard