Vulnerabilities in Mamdani's Lead in New York City Mayoral Election

Strategic Insights -

New York City's mayoral election has been a hot topic in the tristate area, with Eric Adams announcing his departure from the race. While many see Mamdani as the front-runner, recent polls suggest that his lead is not as secure as previously thought. In a four-person race, Mamdani has never been able to get above 50%, despite being the best-liked candidate among voters. However, in a hypothetical two-person race without Adams and Curtis Sliwa, Mamdani struggles to pick up new votes, raising concerns about his chances of winning.

Key Takeaways:

  • Mamdani has never consistently polled above 50% in a four-person race, despite being the most liked candidate among voters.
  • In a hypothetical two-person race without Adams and Sliwa, Mamdani struggles to pick up new votes, with polls showing him earning only a small percentage of the new votes.
  • The recent polls suggest that Cuomo could be a competitive candidate in a two-person race, potentially giving Mamdani a run for his money.
  • Adams' departure from the race may not significantly impact the election, as he was running behind Sliwa as well and had signaled that he would leave the race for a generous payment or to avoid jail.
  • Sliwa's personality and eccentricities may play a role in the election, as he has been dismissive of being bought out of the race and has a history of being critical of Donald Trump.

Statistics:

  • In a four-person race, Mamdani has never polled above 50%, with his highest percentage in a Marist poll being 45% (Marist Poll, September 2025).
  • In a hypothetical two-person race, Mamdani picks up very few new votes, with polls showing him earning around 5-7% less than his previous percentage in a four-person race.
  • In a three-way race without Adams, Sliwa would likely drop out of the running, but his decision to do so is uncertain (New York Times Poll, September 2025).
  • In a hypothetical two-person race between Mamdani and Cuomo, the margin of victory is relatively small, with Cuomo earning around 39% and Mamdani earning around 49% (Marist Poll, September 2025).
  • Sliwa has said he will not drop out of the race despite having zero chance of winning, and his priorities seem to be living with cats and promoting cat-centric public policy (New York Post, August 2025).

Sources:

  • [Marist Poll, September 2025](https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/nyc-mayoralty-september-2025/)
  • [New York Times Poll, September 2025](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/09/09/polls/nyc-mayor-poll-likely-voters.html)
  • [New York Post, August 2025](https://nypost.com/2025/08/31/us-news/curtis-sliwa-calls-for-feral-cat-colonies-to-claw-back-at-nyc-rat-problem-caped-crusaders-at-night/)