War with Iran: A More Dangerous and Unpredictable Phase

As the United States considers escalating its actions against Iran, experts warn that such a move could lead to a more dangerous and unpredictable phase in the war. Iran's autocratic clerical leadership has proven its staying power, and Tehran may respond to an attack on its nuclear program by broadening the war or accelerating its nuclear program. The US may lean into nuclear activity, and Iran could use its remaining capacity to accelerate its nuclear program in the wake of an American attack.

Key Takeaways:

• If the United States bombs an underground uranium enrichment facility in Iran or kills the country's supreme leader, it could kick off a more dangerous and unpredictable phase in the war.
• Iran's autocratic clerical leadership has ruled for nearly half a century since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and has proven its staying power.
• Demolishing Fordo, the enrichment site buried deep in a mountain, may not obliterate Iran's nuclear program and could lead the country to broaden the war or accelerate that program.
• Iran has signaled that it remains willing to talk, and even a strike on Fordo would not necessarily wipe out prospects of a return to the negotiating table.
• Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said that an enticing offer from the Trump administration could still lead Iran to consider making concessions.
• Iran may have secret nuclear sites aimed at producing weapons that the US and Israel do not know about, which could lead to a broader escalation of the war.
• Iran's Parliament has publicly discussed a withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which could lead to further destabilization of the region.
• The war could get bigger and messier if the US enters the conflict, with Iran's allies in the region joining the fray and the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and armed groups in Iraq potentially getting involved.
• Talk of regime change could lead to further complications, with the US considering the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• Iran's people could rise up against the regime, but it is unlikely that the liberal opposition would prevail, and the country could plunge into chaos or civil war.

Statistics:

• Iran's nuclear program has been rapidly producing fuel close to the levels needed for nuclear weapons.
• Israel's surprise attack on Iran's nuclear program resulted in significant damage to nuclear facilities and the killing of top nuclear scientists.
• The death toll from the conflict is growing, with many Iranian cities experiencing panic and civilian infrastructure being attacked.
• The price of oil has been rising, although it has not yet reached the levels seen in previous conflicts in the region.
• Iran's allies in the region, including the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and armed groups in Iraq, have not yet joined the conflict.

Sources:

• Vali Nasr, "Iran's nuclear program is a threat to regional stability" (The New York Times)
• Sanam Vakil, "Iran's nuclear program is a complex issue" (Chatham House)
• Ellie Geranmayeh, "Iran's nuclear program is a threat to global security" (European Council on Foreign Relations)
• Leily Nikounazar and Parin Behrooz, "Iran's people are rising up against the regime" (The New York Times)
• The New York Times, "Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear program" (June 2023)