Washington Stands to Lose $8.1 Billion in Output Sales by 2029 if Trump Tariffs Remain in Place

Strategic Insights -

The Washington state government, led by Governor Bob Ferguson, has filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court to challenge the Trump Administration's illegal tariffs that have been imposed on the state without Congressional approval. The brief asserts that public and private interests in Washington, a leader in global and national trade, are disproportionately harmed by the tariffs, which are expected to result in a net loss of $8.1 billion in output sales by 2029 and the loss of 32,000 jobs.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Trump tariffs are expected to result in a net loss of $8.1 billion in output sales by 2029 for the state of Washington.
  • The tariffs are also projected to result in the loss of 32,000 jobs in the state.
  • The state's GDP growth is expected to slow by 1.2 to 1.8 percentage points through 2029 as a result of the tariffs.
  • Washington companies shipped $57.8 billion worth of goods to the world in 2024, making the state a significant player in global trade.
  • The tariffs have already had significant impacts on the state, with the state Office of Financial Management releasing a report in February that found that fully implementing the tariffs could cost Washington $2.2 billion in general fund revenue over the next four years.
  • Governor Bob Ferguson is leading a coalition of 27 public and private partners in challenging the tariffs, including state and local officials, state legislators, labor unions, and businesses.
  • The coalition has already filed one amicus brief, and this is the second brief filed in support of a multistate lawsuit challenging four of President Donald Trump's executive orders that claim the power to increase tariffs worldwide without Congressional approval.

Statistics:

  • Washington stands to lose $8.1 billion in output sales by 2029 if Trump tariffs remain in place.
  • The tariffs are expected to result in the loss of 32,000 jobs in the state.
  • Quarterly state GDP growth is expected to slow by 1.2 to 1.8 percentage points through 2029.
  • Fully implementing the tariffs could cost Washington $2.2 billion in general fund revenue over the next four years.
  • Washington companies shipped $57.8 billion worth of goods to the world in 2024.
  • Nearly $120 billion in exports and imports flowed through Washington state ports last year.
  • As of 2022, Washington goods exports supported an estimated 160,000 jobs across the state, almost 18 percent above the national average.

Sources:

  • The Office of the Governor of Washington
  • The amicus brief filed with the U.S. Supreme Court
  • The state Office of Financial Management report on the potential effects of tariffs
  • The U.S. Supreme Court case challenging the Trump Administration's tariffs
  • The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)
  • Article I of the Constitution