Wheat Prices Strengthen in Black Sea Amid Tight Supply and Harvest Delays

Strategic Insights -

Global grain market analysts Argus AgriMarkets and Platts S&P Global report that wheat prices in the Black Sea have continued to rise over the past week, driven by tight supply and delayed harvests. Although the harvest is well underway, traders are seeing slow farmer selling of new crop, with the pace of ship loadings at Russian ports four times slower than the same time last year. As a result, Black Sea milling wheat prices have increased by $10 to $15 a tonne above the lows of June. Meanwhile, Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures have also lifted on dry weather forecasts across the US corn belt.

Key Takeaways:

  • Wheat prices in the Black Sea have strengthened due to tight supply and delayed harvests, with Black Sea milling wheat prices sitting $10 to $15 a tonne above the lows of June.
  • The pace of ship loadings at Russian ports is four times slower than the same time last year, indicating slow farmer selling of new crop.
  • Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures have also lifted on dry weather forecasts across the US corn belt.
  • Rising Russian prices may provide opportunities for Australian exporters to fill the gap and lift domestic prices to meet grower expectations.
  • However, this opportunity may be short-lived, as buyers may struggle to accumulate grain from Australian growers.
  • Growers can offer grain for sale at their sell price on an independent exchange to increase participation in export demand.

Statistics:

  • Black Sea milling wheat prices have increased by $10 to $15 a tonne above the lows of June.
  • The pace of ship loadings at Russian ports is four times slower than the same time last year.
  • Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures have lifted on dry weather forecasts across the US corn belt.
  • Average ship loadings at Russian ports per day: Not specified in the source.
  • Percentage decrease in farmer selling of new crop: Not specified in the source.

Sources:

  • Argus AgriMarkets
  • Platts S&P Global
  • Chicago Board of Trade
  • Clear Grain Exchange