White House Faces Imminent Danger of Losing China Trade Initiative

Strategic Insights -

The White House is facing a perilous deadline to secure passage of its huge trade initiative with China, with both Republican and Democratic senators warning that the administration's deal may die if Vice President Al Gore's recent comments are not addressed.

Key Takeaways:

  • The administration has only two to four weeks to pass the China trade deal, according to Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, or the entire agreement will be in jeopardy.
  • Vice President Al Gore's comments on negotiating stronger protections for workers' rights and the environment if elected president have raised serious questions about the administration's commitment to the deal.
  • The administration's inability to send a bill to Congress granting China permanent "normal" trade status, a key concession in the agreement, is delaying the process.
  • President Clinton is lobbying members of Congress in small groups, but it remains unclear whether he will be able to win over enough support from Republicans and Democrats to pass the deal.
  • The White House insists that it can win passage by relying on Republican support and winning over 70 to 90 Democrats, but this is far from guaranteed.
  • Democrats are under pressure from labor's opposition to the trade deal, with Senator Moynihan stating that the Chinese will not sign another deal with better labor and environmental protections.

Statistics:

  • 2-4 weeks: Timeframe for passing the China trade deal, as warned by Senator Moynihan.
  • 75: Number of business leaders attending the Business Council meeting, where President Clinton will speak on the issue.
  • 70-90: Number of Democrats the administration needs to win over to pass the deal.
  • 11,000: Number of words in China's report on Taiwan, which has added complexity to the passage of the trade deal.

Sources:

  • "Gore's Labor Remarks Arouse Hope Among Opposition," article in The New York Times quoting Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, March 6, 1993.
  • "White House to Lobby Congress on China Trade Deal," article in The New York Times, March 6, 1993.