Winnipeg Commodity Exchange Grain and Oilseed Futures: Expect Defensive Opening on Thursday

Strategic Insights -

Winnipeg Commodity Exchange grain and oilseed futures are anticipated to start Thursday's session on the defensive, with traders expecting mainly lower calls for CBOT grain and soybeans. The Canadian dollar's continued strength is seen as undermining price influences, while position evening ahead of Friday morning's grain and oilseed production survey by Statistics Canada is also anticipated. Canola futures are expected to open steady to down $1.00 per metric ton due to weaker calls for CBOT soybean and soyoil.

Key Takeaways:

  • Winnipeg Commodity Exchange grain and oilseed futures are expected to start Thursday's session on the defensive.
  • Canadian dollar's continued strength is seen as undermining price influences.
  • Position evening ahead of Friday morning's grain and oilseed production survey by Statistics Canada is also anticipated.
  • Canola futures are expected to open steady to down $1.00 per metric ton due to weaker calls for CBOT soybean and soyoil.
  • Losses overnight in Malaysian palm oil futures and steady farmer deliveries of canola into the cash market will add to the downward price movement.
  • Statistics Canada's pre-report estimates suggest record-large canola production, ranging from 7.6 million to 9.0 million metric tons.
  • Most projections range from 8.5 to 8.8 million tons, compared to 7.728 million tons in 2004/05.
  • Wet weather in Alberta has caused harvest delays, but canola in swath is able to handle precipitation better than grain crops.
  • Good demand under the market is keeping losses in canola limited, with exporters and domestic crushers bidding just under current price levels.
  • Western barley and feed wheat futures are expected to open mainly steady, with a downward move of 40 to 70 cents possible.
  • Weaker calls for CBOT corn and wheat futures were seen generating some of the downward price action in the feed complex.
  • Reports of Canadian government tariffs on US corn in the softwood lumber dispute have raised concerns about the cost of feed for livestock producers in Western Canada.

Statistics:

  • Grain and oilseed production survey by Statistics Canada is anticipated on Friday morning.
  • Canola futures are expected to open steady to down $1.00 per metric ton.
  • Pre-report estimates suggest record-large canola production, ranging from 7.6 million to 9.0 million metric tons.
  • Most projections range from 8.5 to 8.8 million tons, compared to 7.728 million tons in 2004/05.
  • Western barley and feed wheat futures may experience a downward move of 40 to 70 cents.

Sources:

  • Resource News International
  • Winnipeg Commodity Exchange
  • Statistics Canada
  • Canadian Wheat Board
  • Malaysian palm oil futures
  • US corn prices
  • Canadian government tariffs on US corn in the softwood lumber dispute