Winnipeg Commodity Exchange: Mixed Outlook for Grain and Oilseed Futures

Strategic Insights -

The Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE) is expected to have a mixed outlook for grain and oilseed futures at the open, with gains anticipated in canola and a mixed tone in the feed complex. Canola futures are expected to be steady to C$1 higher, supported by expected gains in CBOT soyoil, which was the leader in Monday's activity and is likely to be higher again. Meanwhile, CBOT soybeans are being called mixed, with gains expected in the nearby months and losses in the new crop futures.

Key Takeaways:

  • Canola futures are expected to be steady to C$1 higher, supported by gains in CBOT soyoil.
  • CBOT soybeans are called mixed, with gains expected in the nearby months and losses in the new crop futures.
  • Western Canadian crop reports are expected to underpin the Winnipeg futures, despite slow crop development due to the cool spring.
  • Short covering in the Jly contract will support the nearby canola futures, as the funds start to roll their position forward.
  • Commercial demand is expected to be supportive to the nearby futures, as supplies tighten and farmers are slow sellers.
  • Strength in the Canadian dollar may keep advances in check.
  • Western barley futures are called steady to mixed, with good support in the barley spreads.
  • Feed wheat is called steady to mixed, with a lack of fresh news to drive the market.

Statistics:

  • CBOT soyoil was the leader in Monday's activity and is likely to be higher again.
  • 74% of Saskatchewan's crop was in good to excellent condition last week, while 69% was in good to excellent condition this week.
  • 6,000 Jly contracts are still short in the hands of the funds, which will start rolling their position forward soon.
  • The Winnipeg feed grains are expected to take a hit due to weakness in CBOT corn futures.

Sources:

  • Resource News International via COMTEX
  • Winnipeg Commodity Exchange
  • Saskatchewan Agriculture
  • Manitoba crop report