Women's Vote Shifts in Favor of Bush Ahead of Elections

Strategic Insights -

The 2004 US presidential election has seen a significant shift in women's voting preferences, with a New York Times/CBS News poll indicating that 48% of registered women voters favor Republican candidate George W. Bush, surpassing the 43% support for Democratic candidate John Kerry. This change has been attributed to the issue of national security, particularly the protection of the United States from terrorists, which has become a particularly compelling concern for women. The polls also show a wide gap between married and single women, with married women being more likely to vote for Bush.

Key Takeaways:

  • A New York Times/CBS News poll conducted last week shows 48% of registered women voters favoring George W. Bush, 43% favoring John Kerry, and 9% undecided.
  • The reason for the shift is attributed to the issue of national security, with women being more concerned about their safety and the safety of their families.
  • The polls also show a significant gap between married and single women, with married women more likely to vote for Bush (59% to 32%).
  • Democratic pollster Mark Mellman said the Kerry campaign was not "especially disturbed" by the reduced support from women but defined it as an "opportunity" to reach out to these voters.
  • John Kerry's campaign has been trying to win back women's votes by emphasizing his ability to protect the country from terrorism and deploying groups of "military moms" to speak on his behalf in several swing states.
  • Republican candidate George W. Bush has also been trying to appeal to women voters by highlighting his efforts to liberate Afghan women from the Taliban regime and featuring signs at his campaign rallies saying "W stands for Women."
  • The polls also show that women have more confidence in George W. Bush's ability to protect the country from terrorists, with 48% expressing a high level of confidence and 25% expressing some level of confidence, whereas 29% of women express a high level of confidence in John Kerry's ability to do so, and 35% express some level of confidence.

Statistics:

  • 48% of registered women voters favor George W. Bush, 43% favor John Kerry, and 9% are undecided (New York Times/CBS News poll).
  • 59% of married women who are registered to vote say they will vote for George W. Bush, 32% say they will vote for John Kerry (New York Times/CBS News poll).
  • 48% of women express a high level of confidence in George W. Bush's ability to protect the country from terrorists, 25% express some level of confidence, 29% of women express a high level of confidence in John Kerry's ability to do so, and 35% express some level of confidence (New York Times/CBS News poll).
  • In 2000, 54% of women voted for Al Gore, the Democratic nominee, while 43% voted for George W. Bush.

Sources:

  • New York Times/CBS News poll
  • Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
  • Mark Mellman, Democratic pollster
  • Diane Feldman, Democratic pollster
  • Celinda Lake, Democratic pollster
  • Ed Goeas, Republican pollster