Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic May be Seeking an End to War with NATO

Strategic Insights -

Growing consensus among Yugoslav analysts and foreign diplomats in Belgrade suggests that President Slobodan Milosevic might be searching for an end to his war with NATO. This view is supported by a senior Yugoslav official, who proclaimed moral victory against NATO and signaled that Milosevic is ready to reach agreement on Kosovo as long as its territorial integrity is preserved. However, NATO has given no sign that it is willing to suspend the bombing, and Milosevic is unlikely to jump at the first proposal that Russian special envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin lays on the table. Meanwhile, NATO continues to attack Yugoslavia, accusing Serb forces of trying to cover up evidence of massacres in Kosovo.

Key Takeaways:

  • A senior Yugoslav official has signaled that Belgrade is ready to cut a deal on Kosovo, but with reservations about the formula put forward by the United States and its major European partners.
  • Two Serb prisoners of war released by the United States were handed back to Yugoslavia yesterday in a gesture aimed at encouraging Milosevic to swiftly release any NATO forces taken prisoner in the future.
  • NATO has had some success in targeting Yugoslav forces, with war casualties in Yugoslavia increasing and anti-war sentiment growing among the population.
  • Russia, China, and other countries have not provided much diplomatic support to Milosevic, and the NATO alliance is holding despite some strains.
  • Analysts believe that the Yugoslav army is feeling the pain of the war, with reports of anti-war demonstrations in the towns of Krusevac and Aleksandrovac, both near the Kosovo border.
  • The government does not release military casualty figures, but analysts think the figure exceeds 3,000.
  • The broad outlines of a possible political settlement have been clear since the May 8 meeting in Bonn of the Group of Eight (G8), which endorsed a peace settlement that reaffirmed NATO's basic demands and softened the language describing the international military force that NATO insists will be present in Kosovo.

Statistics:

  • 3,000: the estimated number of military casualties in Yugoslavia, according to analysts.
  • 11 million: the population of Yugoslavia, according to the senior Yugoslav official.
  • 28,000: the number of soldiers originally contemplated for a NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo.
  • 45,000-50,000: the estimated number of soldiers that will make up the NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo.
  • $15 million: the additional aid announced by First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton for ethnic Albanians who fled Kosovo.

Sources:

  • "A senior Yugoslav official says Belgrade is ready to 'cut a deal' on Kosovo despite unspecified 'reservations' about the formula put forward by the United States and its major European partners." - CRISIS IN THE BALKANS, Associated Press.
  • "Two Serb prisoners of war are handed back to Yugoslavia." - CRISIS IN THE BALKANS, Associated Press.
  • "Alliance missiles hit at least four cities, and six bombs slam into Mount Fruska Gora, near Novi Sad, Yugoslavia's second-largest city." - CRISIS IN THE BALKANS, Associated Press.
  • "A NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo will likely involve 45,000 to 50,000 soldiers, instead of the 28,000 contemplated before the air war in Yugoslavia began, a Pentagon spokesman says." - CRISIS IN THE BALKANS, Associated Press.
  • "First lady Hillary Rodham Clinton announces an extra $15 million in U.S. aid for ethnic Albanians who fled Kosovo." - CRISIS IN THE BALKANS, Associated Press.
  • Associated Press Photo: (b/w) United Nations mission leader Sergio De Mello views the remains of a bridge in Novi Sad, Yugoslavia, that was bombed by NATO forces early in the Kosovo campaign.