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2016 Presidential Election: Unpredictable Outcomes, Changing Polls, and Scandal-Plagued Candidates

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The 2016 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and dramatic elections in recent history, with scandals, changing poll numbers, and unexpected candiates vying for attention. Amidst the chaos, frontrunners like Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are facing challenges from unexpected quarters, including Bernie Sanders, who has emerged as a dark horse candidate in the Democratic primary.

Key Takeaways:

  • A recent Quinnipiac poll showed Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-VT, leading Hillary Clinton in the Iowa Democratic Caucus, with 32% of Democratic voters finding Sanders "honest and caring."
  • Despite Clinton's email scandal, she has traditionally held a strong lead in the polls, but her campaign has been damaged, with a recent CBS poll showing her support dropping to 27% from 39% in a matter of weeks.
  • Ben Carson has overtaken Jeb Bush as runner-up in most polls of the GOP race, with 21% support behind Trump's 27% in Iowa.
  • Wayne Steger, a political science professor at DePaul, notes that polls are fragile and may not accurately reflect the broader electorate: "Just know that polls at this point are fairly fragile."
  • Sanders is unlikely to win the general election, according to Steger, due to his socialist ideology and the ease with which Republicans could attack him for it.
  • Scott Walker has been struggling in Iowa polls due to his perceived flip-flopping on issues like Common Core testing, and now trails behind other candidates.
  • A New York Times poll found that 66% of Democratic primary voters are "mostly satisfied" with Hillary Clinton's explanation of her personal email use, but Clinton continues to fall in the polls.

Statistics:

  • 32% of Democratic voters in a Quinnipiac poll found Sen. Bernie Sanders "honest and caring."
  • 52% of Democratic voters in July supported Hillary Clinton, compared to 39% in a recent CBS poll.
  • 27% of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants support Donald Trump.
  • 21% of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants support Ben Carson.
  • 66% of Democratic primary voters in a New York Times poll are "mostly satisfied" with Hillary Clinton's explanation of her personal email use.
  • 39% of voters in a CBS poll supported Donald Trump in the past month.
  • 26% of voters in a CBS poll supported Donald Trump two months prior.

Sources:

  • Quinnipiac poll (no date)
  • CBS poll (no date)
  • New York Times (no date)
  • Interview with Bruce Evensen, director of the journalism department
  • Interview with Wayne Steger, political science professor at DePaul
  • Interview with Scott Walker

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