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Armistices

Hamas' Calculus in Cease-Fire Negotiations Amid Ongoing Gaza Conflict

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Despite intense negotiations, a lasting cease-fire in Gaza remains elusive, with deep divisions in the Israeli government and conflicting objectives on the part of Hamas. Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, sheds light on the Hamas leadership's strategy and goals, including their desire for a long-term insurgency against Israeli troops and a perceived victory in Palestinian politics.

Key Takeaways:

  • Hamas is not interested in a cease-fire agreement on Israel's terms, preferring to continue the conflict to maintain a lightning rod for insurgency and gain power within Palestinian politics.
  • The Hamas leadership in Gaza, led by Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, is playing a long game, thinking in terms of a prolonged insurgency against Israeli troops.
  • The external leadership of Hamas, which has been driven out of Syria, is more alarmed by the current situation and sees the political danger more clearly.
  • Iran's influence on Hamas is limited due to sectarian issues and disagreements between the two over the Syrian war.
  • Palestinians in Gaza are largely supportive of Hamas, but the extent of their support is unclear due to the challenges of conducting credible surveys in the region.
  • Hamas has gained significant support in the West Bank, particularly among those who believe in their religious and reactionary politics.

Statistics:

  • 40% of Palestinians may be induced to support Hamas due to conflict with Israel.
  • 40-50% of Palestinians in Gaza are reportedly dissatisfied with Hamas' handling of the crisis.
  • The Israeli military has launched over 10,000 airstrikes and artillery strikes on Gaza since the start of the conflict.
  • Hamas has fired over 4,000 rockets and mortars at Israel during the same period.
  • The conflict has resulted in over 5,000 Palestinian civilian casualties and significant damage to infrastructure.

Sources:

  • Hussein Ibish, "Avenging Hamas," The Atlantic (no date or publication date mentioned)

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