Hamas' Postwar Strategy: Riding an Electoral Wave to Power in the West Bank

As Hamas continues to negotiate with Israel, mediated by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, the militant Islamist movement is eyeing its postwar plans, which include riding an electoral wave to power in the West Bank while evading responsibility for the massive reconstruction of Gaza. With polls suggesting that Hamas retains a consistent baseline of support, the movement believes it can translate its battlefield "resilience" into electoral gains, forcing regional states to deal with Hamas directly.

Key Takeaways:

• Hamas' postwar strategy includes relinquishing the administration of Gaza and shifting responsibility for reconstruction and services to a new, interim Palestinian government, formed with its tacit approval, to be followed by elections.
• The movement hopes to establish a "Palestinian unity government representative of all Palestinians from all social and political factions or groups," with apolitical ministers, and will accept any incoming entity that governs both Gaza and the West Bank.
• Hamas officials say they have no interest in continuing to govern Gaza as a separate enclave and plan to focus on their political ambitions, including participating in the daily affairs, policies, and diplomatic agreements made in Ramallah.
• A recent poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found that 40% of Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza chose Hamas as their preferred political party, compared with 20% for Fatah.
• Hamas' goal is to outlast the war with its militant arm, the Al-Qassam Brigades, intact, allowing it to retain influence and have weapons available during the interim period leading up to elections.
• Hamas officials have expressed willingness to discuss the future of armed resistance, including disbanding their militant arm, as part of a national dialogue with other Palestinian factions, but note that as long as the occupation continues, armed resistance is their right.

Statistics:

• Gaza has been severely damaged, with 70% of homes damaged or destroyed, according to the United Nations.
• 38,000 people have been killed in the war, with 61% of Gazans stating that at least one family member has been killed.
• The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research poll found that 46% of Palestinians in Gaza prefer that Hamas stay in control of the territory.
• 64% of Palestinians in Gaza stated they were "satisfied" with Hamas' performance in the war.

Sources:

• The Christian Science Monitor
• Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
• Bassem Naim, Hamas politburo official in Istanbul and former government minister
• Sari Orabi, Palestinian political observer and analyst of Islamist movements
• Belal Shobaki, head of the political science department at Hebron University in the West Bank
• Hamas officials, including those in Gaza and Istanbul