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Ex-presidents

Trump's Unsuccessful Attempts to Court Black and Hispanic Voters Ahead of Presidential Election

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, former President Trump's efforts to win over Black and Hispanic voters appear to be faltering. A recent analysis by the Associated Press (AP) shows that 70% of Black voters and half of Latinos have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Trump. However, both demographic groups see the former president a bit more favorably than when he left office. While Black voters view Trump unfavorably at a rate of 7 in 10, which is down 20 percentage points from 2021, Hispanic voters see Trump positively at a rate of 4 in 10, up from 3 in 10 in January 2021.

Key Takeaways:

  • **Large segments of Black and Hispanic voters view Trump unfavorably**: 70% of Black voters and half of Latinos have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of Trump, according to the AP analysis of two polls.
  • **Minority groups see Trump more favorably than when he left office**: Both demographic groups have shifted towards a more positive view of Trump, with Hispanic voters seeing him positively at a rate of 4 in 10 and Black voters viewing him unfavorably at a rate of 3 in 10.
  • **Trump's conviction in the hush-money case has little impact**: Both polls were conducted after Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts in his New York criminal trial, but this does not appear to have had a significant impact on minority voters' views of him.
  • **Hispanic voters are tied with Biden in polling data**: According to Pew Research Center data published Thursday, Hispanic voters are currently tied with Biden in polling data, while Trump leads among Black voters.
  • **Working-class Black and Latino men are attracted to Trump's populist economic message**: A small but growing number of working-class Black and Latino men are attracted to Trump's populist economic message and trust him over Biden on immigration.
  • **Recency of polling data is key**: Recent polling has shown a lack of enthusiasm among Black and Latino voters for Biden, but this does not necessarily mean they are turning in favor of Trump.
  • **AmeriSpeak, NORC's probability-based survey research panel, was used to conduct the polls**: The two June polls were independent samples from AmeriSpeak, NORC's probability-based survey research panel, which were combined to bolster the sample sizes for racial and ethnic subgroups.

Statistics:

  • **70% of Black voters and half of Latinos have an unfavorable view of Trump**: According to the AP analysis of two polls.
  • **4 in 10 Hispanic voters see Trump positively**: Up from 3 in 10 in January 2021.
  • **7 in 10 Black voters view Trump unfavorably**: Down 20 percentage points from 2021.
  • **20 percentage points difference in Trump's favorability among Black voters**: From 2021 to 2024.
  • **38% of Hispanic voters supported Trump in 2020**: The highest rate of support for Trump among Hispanic voters in recent history.
  • **8% of Black voters supported Trump in 2020**: The lowest rate of support for Trump among Black voters in recent history.

Sources:

  • Associated Press (AP) analysis of two polls: https://apnews.com/article/trump-black-hispanic-americans-voters-of-color-59acadcda6cf9cb1082d4bdd9d4c4a81
  • Pew Research Center: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/07/11/amid-doubts-about-bidens-mental-sharpness-trump-leads-presidential-race/
  • Axios: https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/trump-undecided-voters-plan-election-2024
  • Associated Press-NORC polls: https://apnorc.org/projects/the-biden-trump-debate-is-seen-as-important-for-their-campaigns/
  • AmeriSpeak: https://www.norc.org/research/projects/americSpeak/Pages/default.aspx

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