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Tornadoes

Tornado Watch Issued for Portions of the Great Lakes Region

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

A Tornado Watch has been issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center for portions of Extreme east central Iowa, Northern Illinois, Northwest Indiana, Southwest Lower Michigan, Extreme southern Wisconsin, and Lake Michigan. The watch is effective Monday night and Tuesday morning from 650 PM CDT until 100 AM CDT. The primary threats include a few tornadoes likely, widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely, and scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Benton Harbor, MI to 55 miles south southeast of Marseilles, IL.
  • Thunderstorms are expected to evolve into one or more bow echoes from Iowa into northern Illinois this evening, with the potential to produce swaths of significant severe gusts up to 75-90 mph and several tornadoes with embedded circulations.
  • The storms will spread into northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan later tonight.
  • Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  • The Aviation Watch (SAW1) product is an approximation to the watch area, with the actual watch depicted by the shaded areas.
  • The watch area is expected to experience:

+ Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches.

+ Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots.

+ A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600.

  • The watch area is also expected to experience severe wind events, with a probability of 10 or more severe wind events high (80%) and a probability of 1 or more wind events high (95%).
  • The watch area is further expected to experience severe hail events, with a probability of 10 or more severe hail events moderate (40%) and a probability of 1 or more hailstones 2 inches low (20%).

Statistics:

  • The watch area is approximately 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northwest of Benton Harbor, MI to 55 miles south southeast of Marseilles, IL.
  • The watch is effective Monday night and Tuesday morning from 650 PM CDT until 100 AM CDT.
  • The primary threats include:

+ A few tornadoes likely

+ Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely

+ Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

  • The probability of 2 or more tornadoes is moderate (60%).
  • The probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes is low (20%).
  • The probability of 10 or more severe wind events is high (90%).
  • The probability of 1 or more wind events is high (80%).
  • The probability of 10 or more severe hail events is moderate (40%).
  • The probability of 1 or more hailstones 2 inches is low (20%).

Sources:

  • US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - Tornado Watch Number 541, issued Monday, July 15, 2024, 650 PM CDT
  • NWS Storm Prediction Center - Tornado Watch Number 541, issued Monday, July 15, 2024, 650 PM CDT

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