The British Open: Where Weather and Draw Bias Meet

As Justin Thomas prepares to tee off in the British Open, he recalls his 2016 debut at Royal Troon, where he learned the true meaning of "fickle" in golf. The Open is notorious for its unpredictable weather conditions, which can make the difference between a good round and a bad one, often due to the draw bias. Players can find themselves on either the "good" or "bad" side of the draw, with the latter often making it a daunting task to keep up with those on the better side.

Key Takeaways:

• The British Open's weather conditions can be particularly challenging due to the summer daylight hours in Britain, which enable players to start off one tee for the entire day, allowing the wind to play a massive role.
• The draw bias is a significant factor in the Open, with the "good" side of the draw often producing better results, while the "bad" side can be a hindrance, as seen in Justin Thomas' experience in 2016.
• Weather forecasts can be inconsistent, and conditions can change rapidly, as evidenced by the 2008 Open at Royal Birkdale, where Rich Beem and Sandy Lyle walked off after nine and 10 holes due to the extreme wind.
• The draw bias can lead to dramatic changes in fortunes, such as Louis Oosthuizen's experience at St. Andrews in 2010, where he caught the "good" side of the draw and led by five shots before the wind became fierce in the afternoon.
• Even getting the "bad" side of the draw is not the end of the Open, as Padraig Harrington demonstrated in 2008 at Royal Birkdale, where he won despite struggling in the morning.
• Conditions can be even more exaggerated at Royal Troon due to its out-and-back nature, which was evident in a practice round this week, where wind in the players' faces going out made a comeback even more challenging.

Statistics:

• Wind gusts in 2008 at Royal Birkdale reached 64 km/h.
• The forecast for the 152nd Open is for off-and-on rain during the day with gusts in the 23 km/h range early in the afternoon.
• The last time the Open was at Royal Troon, it had the second-worst draw bias in Open history, with the cut line dropping three shots in a span of 45 minutes on Friday afternoon.
• Tiger Woods' 81 in 2002 at Muirfield, following a storm off the Firth of Forth, brought rain and 64 km/h gusts.
• Gary Woodland recalled an Open where he was early and Dustin Johnson was late, resulting in significantly different conditions.

Sources:

• By Doug Ferguson, The Associated Press
• Rich Beem and Sandy Lyle's experience at Royal Birkdale in 2008
• Louis Oosthuizen's win at St. Andrews in 2010
• Padraig Harrington's win at Royal Birkdale in 2008
• Tiger Woods' 2002 Open at Muirfield
• Gary Woodland's account of an Open experience with Dustin Johnson