Assassination and the Course of History

The shooting of former US President Donald Trump on July 13th in Pennsylvania has sparked a range of questions about the role of assassination in shaping the course of history. Niall Ferguson argues that assassination has been a feature of republican systems throughout history and that the consequences of such events are often far-reaching. In a detailed analysis, Ferguson examines the historical record of assassinations and their impact on the course of history.

Key Takeaways:

• There have been 298 recorded assassination attempts on national leaders between 1875 and 2004, with 251 being serious attempts and 59 resulting in the leader's death.
• According to a 2007 paper by Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken, the annual rate of assassinations increased in the late 19th and early 20th century, decreased substantially during the 1940s, and has been at relatively high levels since 1950.
• The probability of a leader being assassinated in a given year has fallen from 1% to below 0.3% due to tighter security and more accurate weapons.
• Assassinations of autocrats have been found to produce substantial changes in the country's institutions, while assassinations of democratic leaders have not resulted in such changes.
• Successful assassinations have led to an intensification of small-scale conflicts relative to failed assassination attempts.
• The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 ignited a European powder keg of imperial rivalries, arms races, and radical nationalism that might otherwise have remained inert.
• Conversely, it is difficult to believe that World War II would have happened as it did if Adolf Hitler had been killed in 1938.

Statistics:

• 298 recorded assassination attempts on national leaders between 1875 and 2004.
• 251 serious attempts (weapons used) out of 298 recorded attempts.
• 59 nationwide assassinations (leaders' deaths) out of 298 recorded attempts (20% success rate).
• Annual rate of assassinations increased in the late 19th and early 20th century, decreased substantially during the 1940s, and has been at relatively high levels since 1950.
• Probability of leader assassination in a given year fell from 1% to below 0.3% since World War II.

Sources:

• Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken, "Killings and the Allocation of Time by Nepotistic Leaders," American Economic Review (2007)
• Gallup, Approval ratings of President Ronald Reagan after the assassination attempt on March 30, 1981