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Presidential elections

Tanzania: Country Outlook 2024-28

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Tanzania is expected to maintain political stability under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, with the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party dominating the political landscape and legislature. The country's economic growth is projected to accelerate, driven by foreign investment and major infrastructure projects such as the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). Tanzania's economy will also benefit from multilateral aid and credit, with the World Bank and IMF providing significant funding. However, the country's exchange rate is expected to depreciate, driven by a widening current-account deficit.

Key Takeaways:

  • Tanzania is expected to maintain political stability under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, with the CCM party dominating the political landscape and legislature.
  • The country's economic growth is projected to accelerate, driven by foreign investment and major infrastructure projects such as the EACOP.
  • Tanzania's economy will benefit from multilateral aid and credit, with the World Bank and IMF providing significant funding.
  • The country's exchange rate is expected to depreciate, driven by a widening current-account deficit.
  • Inflation is expected to remain low, averaging 3.5% in 2024, but will rise modestly to 4.2% in 2027-28.
  • The current-account deficit will widen in 2024-26, to an average of 3.9% a year, but will shrink to 3.7% in 2028.
  • Tanzania will continue to rely primarily on concessional debt to finance shortfalls, but will see gradual improvements in the business environment and growing investment.
  • Disbursements under the ongoing IMF programme will help alleviate balance-of-payments stresses in 2024-26.
  • The government plans to raise storage capacity to 3m tonnes by 2030 to boost food self-sufficiency and the country's regional role as a net exporter of staple grains.
  • Tundu Lissu, the runner-up in the October 2020 presidential election, is likely to be the main opposition contender in the 2025 presidential election.

Statistics:

  • Real GDP growth: 5.9% in 2024-26, 6.7% in 2027-28
  • Inflation: 3.5% in 2024, 4.2% in 2027-28
  • Current-account deficit: 3.9% of GDP in 2024-26, 3.7% in 2028
  • Exchange rate: TSh2,504:US$1 in 2023, TSh2,698.9:US$1 in 2024, TSh2,816:US$1 in 2028
  • EACOP investment: US$1.05bn extended credit facility (ECF) arrangement with the IMF
  • IMF disbursements: US$789.6m to be disbursed periodically from late 2024 until March 2026

Sources:

  • EIU: "Tanzania: Country outlook"
  • World Bank: "Tanzania Overview"
  • IMF: "Tanzania - Selected Economic Indicators"
  • Bank of Tanzania: "Statement of Monetary Policy Committee"
  • Government of Tanzania: "Budget Speech 2024/25"

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