Trump vs. Harris: How the US Election Impacts Canada

The upcoming US presidential election will have far-reaching implications for Canada, from trade and climate change to international negotiations and border security. As Donald Trump and Kamala Harris face off, Canadians are bracing for a potential "tsunami" of changes that could significantly impact the country's economy, environment, and relationships with its southern neighbor.

Key Takeaways:

• A Trump presidency could lead to a 10% tariff on all imports, which would hurt Canada's economy and lead to a 3.6% drop in gross domestic product, according to a Scotiabank analysis.
• Canada would be "under enormous pressure to reciprocate" in case of new tariffs, similar to the last time Trump introduced tariffs, making trade a major concern for the country.
• Kirsten Hillman, the Canadian ambassador in Washington, warned that Canada would need to respond to US tariffs, which would have negative consequences for the country's economy.
• Christopher Sands, the director of the US-based Wilson Center's Canada Institute, said he doesn't see a Trump administration pursuing drastic changes to the USMCA trade deal, which enjoys bipartisan support.
• Harris, a long-time pro-immigration Democrat, could be expected to maintain a collaborative approach to border management, whereas a Trump administration could follow through on its promise to deploy the "largest deportation program in American history".
• The election of Harris could lead to a "race to the top" on climate action, with a massive industrial policy push including hundreds of billions to incentivize greening the economy, similar to the Biden administration's approach.
• Trump's return to the top job in Washington could disrupt US alliances with Canada and other Western countries, including NATO, which could lead to increased pressure on Canada to increase its defense spending.
• Caroline Brouillette, the executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, warned that the Stokes in this election couldn't be higher, with Trump's pullout of the Paris agreement and his focus on energy dominance posing a significant threat to climate action.

Statistics:

• 3.6% expected drop in gross domestic product in case of US tariffs on all imports (Scotiabank analysis)
• More than $50 billion in federal and provincial subsidies for Canada's EV strategy
• Billions more in clean energy tax credits for Canada's clean energy industry
• 10% tariff on all imports that Trump has threatened to impose
• Largest deportation program in American history, affecting over 11 million undocumented immigrants (Republican party platform)

Sources:

• Trade Minister Mary Ng, May editorial board meeting with Toronto Star
• Kirsten Hillman, Canadian ambassador in Washington, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
• Chris Liddell, former Trump administration official, June interview
• Christopher Sands, director of the US-based Wilson Center's Canada Institute
• Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada
• Bruce Heyman, former US ambassador to Canada, in a Toronto Star interview