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Biden, Joe

Ceasefire in Gaza: US Diplomacy Hits Critical Juncture

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

A ceasefire agreement in Gaza is reported to be 90 percent ready, according to an anonymous US official, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denies this assessment. Secretary of State Antony Blinken maintains that 90 percent of the deal is done, fueling hopes for a breakthrough that could offer a major boost to President Joe Biden's heir, Kamala Harris, in the upcoming election. The Biden administration, under pressure to deliver a deal, has been engaged in intense diplomacy, working with Arab mediators Qatar and Egypt to bridge remaining gaps. The agreement, which would stop fighting for an initial six weeks and see both sides release captives, is threatened by the Gaza border with Egypt, known as the Philadelphi Corridor, where Netanyahu demands a presence by Israeli troops who seized posts from Hamas.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US and Israeli governments are engaged in a high-stakes diplomacy effort to secure a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, with a reported 90 percent readiness.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied reports that the deal is 90 percent complete, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken has maintained that progress has been made.
  • The Gaza border with Egypt, known as the Philadelphi Corridor, remains a major stumbling block in the negotiations, with Netanyahu demanding a presence by Israeli troops who seized posts from Hamas.
  • The deal, which would stop fighting for an initial six weeks and see both sides release captives, is threatened by the resistance of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and Israeli public support for a deal.
  • The agreement has the potential to offer a major boost to President Joe Biden's heir, Kamala Harris, in the upcoming election.
  • The Biden administration has been criticized for not using its leverage to pressure Israel, but has instead sought to incentivize Netanyahu to accept the deal.
  • Experts agree that the US has little choice but to keep trying to secure a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, despite serial setbacks and delays.

Statistics:

  • 1,205 people died in the October 7 attack by Hamas, mostly civilians including some hostages killed in captivity.
  • 40,000 people have died in Hamas-ruled Gaza, according to official figures.
  • The US has spent billions of dollars on weapons to Israel, but the Biden administration has stopped short of using this leverage to pressure the Israeli government.
  • 90 percent of a proposed ceasefire agreement is reportedly complete, but tensions remain high.

Sources:

  • Anonymous US official
  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
  • Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar
  • Middle East program director Merissa Khurma, Wilson Center in Washington
  • Ghaith al-Omari, senior fellow at the Washington Institute
  • Arab American Institute
  • The Washington Institute
  • The Wilson Center in Washington
  • Official figures from the Israeli government
  • Polling from the Arab American Institute

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