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Civilian evacuation

Hurricane Helene Brings Life-Threatening Storm Surge to Florida and Southeastern US

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Helene was on the verge of hurricane strength Wednesday morning after a period of steady strengthening overnight, and rapid intensification was poised to begin. The storm is forecast to reach Category 3 strength before slamming the Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday, with serious impacts spreading across the southeastern United States. The National Hurricane Center warned of a "life-threatening" storm surge - or rise in ocean water above normally dry land - in Florida's Big Bend area and along the entire west coast of the peninsula.

Key Takeaways:

  • The storm is forecast to reach Category 3 strength before making landfall in the Florida Big Bend area, with up to 10 to 15 feet of storm surge and destructive winds plowing ashore.
  • Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for parts or all of at least 12 coastal counties between the Panhandle and the peninsula's west coast, with six counties in southeast Florida excluded from the declaration.
  • Florida State University in Tallahassee will close its campus through Sunday, among other school closures in the state.
  • The storm is expected to bring severe winds, widespread power outages, and flash flooding to the southeastern United States, with the National Weather Service declaring a "high risk" of excessive rainfall in the southern Appalachians.
  • The storm's size could be in the top 10 percent of hurricanes observed in the region, making its surge and wind impacts both greater and more wide-reaching than typical.
  • The storm's forward speed is expected to be close to record-setting, allowing the storm surge to arrive abruptly and build quickly.

Statistics:

  • Up to 10-15 feet of storm surge is expected in the Florida Big Bend area, with a 5- to 8-foot surge probable in Tampa Bay.
  • The storm is forecast to bring 4-8 inches of rain, with some 10- to 12-inch totals expected.
  • A "high risk" of excessive rainfall is declared for the southern Appalachians, with 10-15 inches of rain expected in the region.
  • The storm is expected to bring gusts of up to 115 mph in the eyewall, with gusts of 75-95 mph probable in extreme northern Florida and central/eastern parts of the Panhandle.
  • The storm's forward speed is expected to be close to record-setting, with the storm passing by Florida at high speeds.

Sources:

  • National Hurricane Center
  • Weather Channel
  • Florida State University

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