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Tanzania: Country Outlook 2025-2029

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

President Samia Suluhu Hassan is expected to remain at the helm of the country, with the ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) maintaining its dominance in the National Assembly. The October 2025 elections are likely to see CCM secure another strong electoral performance, with President Samia seeking re-election. The country's economy is expected to experience sustained growth, driven by infrastructure projects and investments, although it will face challenges in the form of inflation and exchange rate volatility.

Key Takeaways:

  • The EIU expects Tanzania to remain broadly politically stable over 2025-29 under President Samia Suluhu Hassan's leadership.
  • Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is expected to maintain its dominance in the National Assembly, with President Samia seeking re-election in the October 2025 elections.
  • The country's economy is expected to experience sustained growth, driven by infrastructure projects and investments, with real GDP growth accelerating to an annual average of 6.1% in 2025-27.
  • Inflation is forecast to increase slightly in 2025, driven by expectations of a rebound in food price increases, and will then gradually tick up in 2027-29, averaging 4.3% a year.
  • The Tanzanian shilling is expected to depreciate slowly over the forecast period, driven by a widening current-account deficit and election-related volatility.
  • The current-account deficit is expected to widen from an estimated 3.7% of GDP in 2024 to an average of 4.1% of GDP a year in 2025-26.
  • Tanzania will continue to rely primarily on concessional debt to finance the shortfalls, with disbursements under ongoing IMF programmes mitigating balance-of-payments pressures.

Statistics:

  • Real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to an average of 6.1% in 2025-27 and stabilise at 6.6% a year in 2028-29.
  • Inflation is forecast to increase to 3.8% in 2025, 4.1% in 2026, and 4.3% in 2027-29.
  • The current-account deficit is expected to widen to 4.1% of GDP in 2025-26 and narrow to 3.5% of GDP in 2028-29.
  • The Tanzanian shilling is expected to depreciate to TSh2,792.7:US$1 at the end of 2025, TSh2,900.7:US$1 at the end of 2026, and TSh2,900.7:US$1 at the end of 2029.

Sources:

  • EIU Political Stability report (no date mentioned)
  • EIU Economic Outlook report (no date mentioned)
  • World Bank (no date mentioned)
  • IMF (no date mentioned)
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024). Tanzania: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility. Retrieved from
  • East African Business Council (no date mentioned)

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