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Measles

Measles Cases Could Reach Millions in the US Over 25 Years if Vaccination Rates Decline

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The US is on the cusp of a measles epidemic, according to new research from Stanford University, which predicts millions of cases over the next 25 years if vaccination rates drop by just 10 percent. Currently, about 800 measles cases have been reported in the first three months of 2025, the largest number in a single year since 2019. Experts warn that without significant increases in vaccination rates, measles could become endemic, leading to hundreds of thousands of cases, widespread hospitalizations, and deaths.

Key Takeaways:

  • If vaccination rates for measles drop by 10 percent, the US could experience millions of cases over the next 25 years, according to a new study from Stanford University.
  • Currently, about 800 measles cases have been reported in the first three months of 2025, the largest number in a single year since 2019.
  • Experts warn that without significant increases in vaccination rates, measles could become endemic, leading to hundreds of thousands of cases, widespread hospitalizations, and deaths.
  • A 5 percent increase in state-level vaccination rates could prevent huge increases in measles cases, according to the study.
  • Hesitancy to accept COVID-19 vaccines has led to increased questioning of routine childhood vaccinations, and ongoing policy debates about school vaccination requirements could further reduce immunization coverage.
  • The US has already seen a West Texas outbreak resulting in the deaths of two children, and a third death in New Mexico is linked to the outbreak.
  • Most Americans have encountered false claims about the measles vaccine, and many are unsure what the truth is, according to a KFF poll.
  • The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that in the decade before a measles vaccine was introduced in 1963, 3 million to 4 million people in the US were infected each year, with 400 to 500 deaths, 48,000 hospitalizations, and 1,000 cases of encephalitis.

Statistics:

  • 800 measles cases have been reported in the first three months of 2025, the largest number in a single year since 2019 (CDC).
  • 2 children have died in a West Texas outbreak, and a third death in New Mexico is linked to the outbreak (CDC).
  • 95 percent of a community must receive two doses of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine to prevent measles outbreaks (study authors).
  • 87.7 percent to 95.6 percent is the estimated current vaccination coverage for measles (study authors).
  • Romania had more than 30,000 measles cases in 2024, followed by Kazakhstan with about 28,000 cases (World Health Organization).
  • In the decade before a measles vaccine was introduced in 1963, 3 million to 4 million people in the US were infected each year, with 400 to 500 deaths, 48,000 hospitalizations, and 1,000 cases of encephalitis (CDC).

Sources:

  • Sun, Lena H. "US Faces Millions of Measles Cases Over Next 25 Years if Vaccination Rates Decline." The Washington Post, 25 Apr. 2025.
  • World Health Organization. "Measles Cases in Europe and Central Asia." 2024.
  • CDC. "Measles Cases and Deaths in the US." 2025.
  • KFF. "Measles Vaccine Hesitancy and Misinformation." 2025.
  • Sun, Lena H. "Stanford Researchers Create a Model for the Spread of Infectious Diseases." The Washington Post, 25 Apr. 2025.

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