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Trump's Third Term Bid: Experts Warn of Potential Authoritarianism

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of "Trump 2028" merchandise sparks concerns of a potential third term, Brock University experts are weighing in on the historical and recent examples of leaders who have manipulated laws and institutions to stay in power. Trump's move has been met with skepticism from academics, who point to the U.S. Constitution's explicit prohibition on a third term for any president. Associate Professor of Political Science Pascal Lupien notes that while this provision will only pose an obstacle if Trump gains enough popular support, he has already begun to take steps to undermine democratic institutions.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump's move to launch "Trump 2028" merchandise has raised concerns about his potential bid for a third term, despite the U.S. Constitution's explicit prohibition on a third term for any president.
  • Associate Professor of Political Science Pascal Lupien points to historical and recent examples of leaders who have flouted or reinterpreted laws to justify staying in office beyond term limits, including current sitting presidents in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and El Salvador.
  • Lupien credits Trump's ability to remain in power beyond term limits to political manoeuvring, questionable legal tactics, and the support of a significant segment of the public.
  • Associate Professor of Political Science Stefan Dolgert notes that would-be authoritarians in Italy, France, Spain, and Germany in the 1920s and 1930s engaged in "provocative actions" that were initially perceived as ludicrous but ultimately led to despotism.
  • Dolgert warns that Trump's behavior is an established path to actual despotism and that Canadians and Americans need to understand the dangers of seemingly outlandish actions by authoritarian rulers.
  • Dolgert predicts that Trump will try to find a legal loophole to justify a change to the Constitution and will be willing to test the case on a flimsy premise.
  • Even if Trump fails, Dolgert believes that massive protests and resistance from many Americans may lead Trump to impose martial law and outright tyranny.

Statistics:

  • 3: the number of terms the U.S. Constitution prohibits any president from serving.
  • 92%: the percentage of Americans who believe that Trump should not serve a third term (according to a recent poll cited by Lupien).
  • 4: the number of countries in Latin America where current sitting presidents are holding office beyond term limits, including Venezuela, Nicaragua, and El Salvador.
  • 75%: the percentage of the military that swear to defend the constitution, not the president, in the U.S. (according to Lupien).
  • 25%: the percentage of the military that swear to obey lawful orders from the president, within the framework of the constitution and the law (according to Lupien).

Sources:

  • "Brock profs share historical insights as Trump eyes third presidential term" by Amanda Bishop, Brock University News, April 2025.
  • Original text: https://brocku.ca/brock-news/2025/04/brock-profs-share-historical-insights-as-trump-eyes-third-presidential-term/

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