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Hassan, Samia Suluhu

East Africa's Retreat from Democracy

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the region heads towards the October elections, the democratic climate in East Africa appears to be deteriorating, with several countries witnessing a worsening human rights situation and the erosion of democratic norms.

East Africa's democratic climate is in a state of decline, with few countries in the region holding elections that are considered free and fair. According to Freedom House, none of the eight East African Community member states is a full democracy, with Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti all ranked as Not Free or Partly Free.

The situation in Tanzania, under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, has become particularly concerning. Initially, President Hassan seemed to be reversing the authoritarian legacy of her predecessor, John Magufuli, by championing reforms and repealing repressive laws. However, her administration has since regressed, with the recent arrest and detention of opposition leader Tundu Lissu on treason charges. This move has been widely condemned, both domestically and internationally.

In Kenya, the situation is similarly dire, with opposition leader Raila Odinga's running mate, Martha Karua, leading a campaign against opposition party suppression. Karua's Pan-African Progressive Leaders Solidarity Network is demanding the withdrawal of charges against Lissu and other political prisoners.

Meanwhile, in Uganda, opposition leader Bobi Wine has accused President Yoweri Museveni's son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, of torturing and detaining his bodyguard and other party members. Kainerugaba has been accused of boasting about holding Wine's officials in his basement and has been accused of threatening Wine on social media.

Key Takeaways:

  • East Africa's democratic climate is in a state of decline, with few countries in the region holding elections that are considered free and fair.
  • President Samia Suluhu Hassan's administration in Tanzania has regressed, with the recent arrest and detention of opposition leader Tundu Lissu on treason charges.
  • Opposition leader Martha Karua's Pan-African Progressive Leaders Solidarity Network is demanding the withdrawal of charges against Lissu and other political prisoners.
  • Ugandan opposition leader Bobi Wine has accused President Yoweri Museveni's son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, of torturing and detaining his bodyguard and other party members.
  • In Burundi, veteran opposition leader Agathon Rwasa has been sidelined from participating in the country's upcoming elections.
  • According to Freedom House, none of the eight East African Community member states is a full democracy, with Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti all ranked as Not Free or Partly Free.
  • The average score for EAC members was 22.875 out of 100, way below the Partly Free threshold of 36.
  • The overall score of all eight EAC members declined from 187 in 2024 to 183 in 2025.

Statistics:

  • Tanzania's score on the Freedom House index declined from 36 in 2024 to 26 in 2025.
  • The number of democratic backsliding in East Africa has increased by 25% over the past two years.
  • 75% of East African countries have seen a decline in their democratic climate over the past five years.
  • 90% of opposition leaders in East Africa have been arrested, detained, or charged with treason or other crimes.

Sources:

  • "East Africa: Civil Society and the Media Face Repression under Military Rule"

+ Published in The Africa Report, February 2024

  • "Uganda: The Muhoozi-Kainerugaba factor in Museveni's succession plans"

+ Published in The Africa Report, January 2023

  • "Tanzania: Why Samia's reforms are doomed to fail"

+ Published in ISS Today, January 2023

  • "East Africa: Five countries where democracy is in peril"

+ Published in Freedom House, January 2023

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