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Tornadoes

Tornado Watch Issued for Central and Southern Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Severe weather conditions have been forecasted to impact parts of the Midwest, prompting the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center to issue a Tornado Watch for Central and Southern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Western and Central Kentucky, and Far Southeast Missouri. Effective from Friday afternoon to evening, the watch area includes areas approximately 95 miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Indianapolis, Indiana, to 40 miles south of Paducah, Kentucky.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Tornado Watch has been issued for a large area, including parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Missouri.
  • The watch area is approximately 95 miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Indianapolis, Indiana, to 40 miles south of Paducah, Kentucky.
  • Supercells ongoing across eastern Missouri and western Illinois are expected to continue eastward into the destabilizing airmass downstream, bringing severe hazards including very large hail up to 2.5-3 inches in diameter and strong to intense tornadoes.
  • Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes are likely, along with widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events up to 2.5 inches in diameter.
  • Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts up to 80 mph are also possible.
  • The watch is effective from 300 PM to 1000 PM CDT on Friday, May 16, 2025.
  • The Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area, and people in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

Statistics:

  • Probability of 2 or more tornadoes: High (80%)
  • Probability of 1 or more strong tornadoes (EF2-EF5): Moderate (60%)
  • Wind: Probability of 10 or more severe wind events: High (80%); Probability of 1 or more wind events 65 knots: High (70%)
  • Hail: Probability of 10 or more severe hail events: High (80%); Probability of 1 or more hailstones 2 inches: High (80%)
  • Combined Severe Hail/Wind: Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events: High (95%)

Sources:

  • NWS Storm Prediction Center
  • http://milnz.co.nz/mil-osi-aggregation/
  • MIL OSI USA News
  • Contify.com

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