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Arab-Israeli conflicts

Israel at a Crossroads: A Fateful Choice Between a Deal and a Full-Scale Assault on Gaza

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a critical decision: reach a deal to bring all hostages home and end the war, or launch a full-scale assault on Gaza in pursuit of a seemingly unattainable "total victory" over Hamas. The war has already destroyed most Hamas targets and infrastructure, but another round of fighting will only bring more destruction and potentially condemn more hostages to death.

Key Takeaways:

  • The war in Gaza has already destroyed most Hamas targets and infrastructure, and another round of fighting will only lead to more destruction and potentially condemn more hostages to death.
  • A deal to bring all hostages home and end the war would benefit Israel, allowing for the return of the hostages, an end to the fighting, and the beginning of reconstruction.
  • The deal would also offer Israel the chance to integrate into a new regional architecture, potentially including normalization with Saudi Arabia and participation in the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor.
  • Israel's former Prime Minister Ehud Barak believes that Netanyahu is prioritizing his own political interests over the national interest, and that a renewed offensive in Gaza would bring no strategic gain.
  • The IDF and war cabinet have pressed Netanyahu to define "the day after" in Gaza, but he has refused, fearing that it would lead to the truth that defeating Hamas means replacing it with a government accepted by regional partners and the international community.
  • The US President Donald Trump has reportedly warned Netanyahu that the US will abandon Israel if it does not end the war.
  • France, Britain, and Canada have demanded that Israel renew humanitarian aid or face consequences, and the UK has announced it will suspend talks on a bilateral trade deal.
  • Israel's former Prime Minister Ehud Barak believes that a transition to a new, Arab-led government in Gaza, backed by the Arab League and the UN, would be key to achieving a sustainable victory over Hamas.

Statistics:

  • October 7, 2023, was the darkest day in Israel's history, with the current war already lasting almost 20 months.
  • Israel has already destroyed most Hamas targets and infrastructure, and the renewal of fighting will only lead to more destruction and potentially condemn more hostages to death.
  • More than 70% of Israelis hold Netanyahu responsible for the October failure, and more than half think he acts based on personal rather than national interests.
  • It is estimated that $1.5bn in Qatari funds flowed into Hamas's hands, with part of it likely ending up in tunnels and arsenals.

Sources:

  • Ehud Barak's Op-Ed in a leading international newspaper
  • Reuters, "Exclusive: Israel's Netanyahu warned by Trump to end Gaza war"
  • BBC News, "Gaza: UK suspends trade talks with Israel over humanitarian crisis"
  • The Guardian, "Israel's Netanyahu faces pressure from world leaders to end Gaza war"

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