Canada's Wild Ride in Trade Talks with the US Under Mark Carney's Leadership

Despite cordial negotiations and an unusually warm relationship between US President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada's trade talks have taken a wild ride in recent weeks. The country went from a friendly meeting between the two leaders on July 21 to a brief suspension of talks and a threat by Mr. Trump of higher tariffs and another delay in talks. As Mr. Trump upends the global trade order, good vibes appear necessary but still not enough to clinch a deal.

Key Takeaways:

• Canada was the first target of Mr. Trump's sweeping tariffs, alongside Mexico, as soon as he won the election, with disputed claims that Canada was allowing fentanyl and illegal immigrants to flow into the US.
• Prime Minister Mark Carney took over in March after Justin Trudeau stepped down and visited the White House in May, hosting Mr. Trump in Canada the next month, with both meetings going surprisingly well.
• Top officials driving the trade talks, including US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Canada's Ambassador to the US Kirsten Hillman, have struck a professional tone, with Ms. Hillman characterizing the drama in late June as "quite a normal thing during the course of negotiations this broad and this complex".
• Mr. Trump threatened to hike tariffs from 25 percent to 35 percent in a late-night letter to Mr. Carney, with no indications that Canada will be exempt from new tariffs on copper imports.
• Mr. Trump's affinity for Mr. Carney has been evident, with Mr. Trump referring to him as a "terrific guy" and CNN's Christiane Amanpour calling him the "Trump whisperer".
• The Canadian government has sought to return to the stipulations of the free-trade agreement and remove all tariffs, with Mr. Trump exempting most products qualifying as North American under the deal.

Statistics:

• 25 percent tariff imposed by Mr. Trump on imports from Canada earlier this year
• 50 percent tariff imposed on steel and aluminum imports from Canada
• 35 percent proposed tariff hike by Mr. Trump
• July 21: originally scheduled deadline for trade deal
• 25 percent tariff rate for oil, fertilizer, and energy products from Canada
• 48 hours of drama in late June: period of suspension and reinstatement of talks
• 10 percent digital services tax introduced by Canada: subsequently scrapped due to US pressure

Sources:

• "Trade Talks Between US and Canada Are Turbulent, Despite Warm Relationship Between Leaders" by The New York Times, June [undisclosed, as no date mentioned in the original text]
• The New York Times
• CNN
• Canadian Government
• US Trade Representative
• Canadian Ambassador to the US