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Biya, Paul

Cameroon's Presidential Election: A Battle Against All Odds

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Eromo Egbejule in Douala and Yaoundé, Cameroon has the second-best performing economy in central Africa, but a third of the population lives on $2 or less daily. Against this backdrop, gambling and betting have become increasingly popular, and despite decades of rule by President Paul Biya, the 92-year-old incumbent, a third of the population is undecided about voting in the upcoming election. Eight in ten of the workforce are informally employed, and endemic corruption and a cost of living crisis have been exacerbated by concurrent conflicts with armed anglophone separatists, jihadists, and criminal kidnapping gangs.

Key Takeaways:

  • The country's presidential election is scheduled to take place in October, with 92-year-old President Paul Biya as the overwhelming favourite to win another seven-year term.
  • A third of the population lives on $2 or less daily, and eight in ten of the workforce are informally employed, highlighting the widespread poverty and unemployment in the country.
  • The election has been marred by allegations of irregularities, including the resignation of two of Biya's longtime allies, Bello Bouba Maigari and Issa Tchiroma, who have declared their intention to run against him.
  • The ruling Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) is accused of sponsoring political parties to cause confusion within opposition ranks and armed separatist factions to stir chaos.
  • The opposition parties, including the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC), have accused the government of harassment and intimidation, with some leaders, such as Maurice Kamto, being placed under house arrest.
  • The election has sparked concerns about the legitimacy and fairness of the process, with some experts predicting a repeat of the unrest that followed the re-election of Ali Bongo in Gabon in August 2023.

Statistics:

  • A third of the population lives on $2 or less daily.
  • Eight in ten of the workforce are informally employed, according to a 2023 survey by the country's National Statistics Institute.
  • The abstention rate in the 1992 election was 19.6%, while by 2018 it had hit 46.7%.
  • The country's unemployment rate is estimated to be around 25%.
  • At least seven people, including a priest, were killed by security officials during the 2018 election weekend in Buea and Bamenda.
  • Two of Biya's longtime allies resigned from the cabinet within days of each other in June and declared their intention to run against him.

Sources:

  • "2023 survey by the country's National Statistics Institute".
  • "Eromo Egbejule in Douala and Yaoundé, Cameroon".
  • "Bishop Barthélemy Yaouda Hourgo, the Catholic bishop of Yagoua in the country's Far North region".
  • "Christopher Nkong, the secretary general of the leading opposition party, Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC)".
  • "Paul Biya, president since 1982".
  • "Kah Walla, the leader of the left-leaning Cameroon People's party".

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