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Arce, Luis

Bolivia on the Brink: A Rightward Shift Looms in the 2025 Elections

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Voters in Bolivia will head to the polls on August 17, casting ballots for the next president and members of Congress. However, a schism within the long-dominant left wing has opened the door for a possible right-wing victory. Candidates like businessman Samuel Doria Medina and former President Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga are vying for the lead, hoping to capitalize on public dissatisfaction with the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party. Tensions remain high, and polls show a close race that may not produce a clear winner in the first round of voting.

Key Takeaways:

  • The election is expected to proceed to a second round of voting on October 19, as the top presidential candidate must either earn more than 50% of the vote or garner 40% of the vote and have a 10-point lead over the second-place contender.
  • A total of 10 presidential candidates are registered to participate, but no single contender has decisively broken into the lead.
  • Samuel Doria Medina, a politician and businessman, and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, a former president, are the leading conservative candidates.
  • Andronico Rodriguez, the president of the Senate, is the leading left-wing candidate, running as an independent after splitting from the MAS party.
  • The country's economic turbulence and cost of living crisis are top of mind for voters, with rising prices and fuel shortages being the most pressing concerns.
  • President Luis Arce announced in May that he would not seek re-election, citing the country's economic crisis and a feud with former president Evo Morales.
  • Morales has been excluded from the election due to term limits imposed since he left office, but he has continued to press for a fourth term and has urged his supporters to cast null ballots to protest the election.
  • The Spanish-language news organization Asesoría writes that Morales claims the 2021 elections were stolen from him.

Statistics:

  • Bolivia has a population of approximately 12 million, with more than seven million eligible voters.
  • The national currency has lost more than half of its value since 2022.
  • The country has vast stores of natural gas and oil, but production has tumbled, leading to an economic shortfall.
  • A survey in May found that voters identified rising prices as their top concern, followed by fuel shortages, shrinking dollar reserves, and unemployment.

Sources:

  • "Bolivian presidential candidate Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga campaigns in La Paz, Bolivia, on August 7" [Juan Karita/AP Photo]
  • International Crisis Group, a research nonprofit.
  • A poll aggregator compiled by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas.
  • "Bolivia's economy is experiencing its worst crisis in a generation," according to Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.
  • "Bolivia Court Bars Former Leader Evo Morales from Running for Office" [Al Jazeera]
  • "Antigovernment Protests in Bolivia Leave Multiple People Dead" [Al Jazeera]

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