Bolivia's Clock Ticks Towards a New Era as Morales's Party Teeters on the Brink of Oblivion

In the heart of Bolivia's political capital, La Paz, a clock that has become an emblem of the country's decline is ticking away, as the nation prepares to cast its vote for a new president. The clock, installed atop the congressional palace during the years of prosperity under former president Evo Morales, was meant to symbolize the "decolonial and anti-imperialist" worldview championed by the left. However, as the country faces its worst economic crisis in 40 years, Bolivia itself has been moving backwards. Morales's Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas) party, which has been in power for nearly 20 years, risks losing power and disappearing as a political force altogether.

Key Takeaways:

• Polls point to a potential runoff between two rightwing candidates: Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, with Medina leading closely followed by Quiroga.
• The current president, Luis Arce, is not seeking re-election, and his minister of government, Eduardo del Castillo, is polling below 3% and in danger of not reaching the 5% threshold to remain eligible to contest future elections.
• Arce has acknowledged that polls failed to predict his first-round victory in 2020 and said that he would respect the result if the right won.
• Morales, the first Indigenous president in Bolivia's history and the country's longest-serving leader, was barred from running due to allegations of exceeding the two-term limit and not formally registering his party.
• Morales has remained entrenched in central Bolivia, where hundreds of coca farmers have prevented police from executing an arrest warrant issued against him over allegations that he fathered a child with a 15-year-old while in office.
• Morales has urged supporters to cast blank votes, claiming that if the number of spoiled ballots exceeded the share won by the top candidate, it would mean he had won.
• The highest-polling leftwing name is that of Andrónico Rodríguez, a 36-year-old senator, polling third to fifth.
• Both Doria and Quiroga advocate spending cuts as their main strategy to tackle the economic crisis, with Quiroga prioritizing relations with the United States and Medina promising to restore the supply of dollars and fuel within 100 days.

Statistics:

• 7.9 million Bolivians will head to the polls this Sunday to choose their next president.
• Polls point to a potential runoff between two rightwing candidates, with Medina and Quiroga leading closely followed by Rodríguez.
• Medina has promised to restore the supply of dollars and fuel within 100 days, while Quiroga would prioritize relations with the United States.
• Annual inflation in Bolivia has reached 24.8% by July 2025, the highest level since at least 2008.
• Maize prices have risen from 120 (£13) to 200 (£21) bolivianos in a year, affecting vendors like Grover Quispe Lima, who sells maize to feed pigeons in Plaza Murillo.

Sources:

• Chávez Alvarez, Gonzalo (Analyst and Professor at the Universidad Católica Boliviana)
• The Guardian
• Quispe, Pablo (55-year-old hat seller in El Alto)
• Alvarez, Gonzalo (Analyst and Professor at the Universidad Católica Boliviana)
• Guarachi Padilla, Leticia (35-year-old leftist entrepreneur)
• Rodríguez, Juan Pablo (28-year-old automotive engineer)
• Medina, Samuel (centre-right business tycoon and former planning minister)
• Quiroga, Jorge (rightwing former president and candidate)
• Zaratti, Francesco (emeritus professor at the Universidad Mayor de San Andrés)
• Quispe Lima, Grover (35-year-old maize vendor in Plaza Murillo)