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Ex-presidents

Bolivia Heads to the Polls in a Shift to the Right

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Bolivians are heading to the polls to decide on a new government, with the leftist Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas) facing a potential defeat that could mark a shift to the right after nearly 20 years of rule. The party, which has been in power since 2005, is at risk of losing its legal status if it fails to reach 3% in the polls, a threshold it has not hit in recent polls. Two opposition candidates, center-right business tycoon Samuel Doria Medina and right-wing former president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, are virtually tied in the polls.

Key Takeaways:

  • The opposition candidates, Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, are virtually tied in the polls, with Medina polling at around 40% and Quiroga polling at around 38%.
  • The leftist Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas) is at risk of losing its legal status if it fails to reach 3% in the polls, a threshold it has not hit in recent polls.
  • Former president Luis Arce, who decided not to run, has nominated his 36-year-old minister of government, Eduardo del Castillo, to replace him, but Castillo is polling at only around 2%.
  • Morales, the former president who has been barred from running, is urging supporters to cast null votes, which have risen from 10% to 12% in recent days.
  • A third candidate, 36-year-old senator Andrónico Rodríguez, could potentially make it to a runoff against Doria Medina or Quiroga, but this is a long shot.

Statistics:

  • 7.9 million Bolivians are eligible to vote in the election.
  • 20 years is the amount of time the Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas) has been in power.
  • 3% is the threshold that Mas needs to reach to maintain its legal status.
  • 10% and 12% are the respective numbers of null votes cast before and after Morales's call to supporters.

Sources:

  • La Prensa (bolivia) "Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge ‘Tuto’ Quiroga are almost tied in the polls"
  • La Prensa (bolivia) "Bolivians go to polls in a shift to the right"
  • Opendeditorial "Bolivia Vote Parties & Candidates"
  • The Guardian "Arce tells Guardian he would respect election result if the right won"

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