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Arce, Luis

Bolivia on the Brink: Economic Crisis and a Shift to the Right in Upcoming Presidential Elections

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The upcoming presidential election in Bolivia, set for Sunday, promises to be a pivotal moment in the country's history. Almost 8 million citizens are expected to vote, marking a turning point from two decades of dominance by the left-wing Movement for Socialism (MAS), led by former President Evo Morales. Amidst an economic crisis, characterized by shortages of US dollars, soaring prices, and fuel scarcities, polls suggest a sharp shift to the right. Two right-wing candidates, Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga, are leading the polls, vowing to dismantle the state-led economic model implemented by Morales. The election's outcome could have far-reaching implications for Bolivia's future, with a close race potentially leading to a runoff on October 19.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Movement for Socialism (MAS), led by former President Evo Morales, has dominated Bolivia's politics for two decades, but polls suggest a significant shift to the right in the upcoming presidential election.
  • Two right-wing candidates, Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga, are leading the polls, with Medina as the frontrunner, a center-right businessman and former planning minister from the National Unity Front.
  • Medina ran unsuccessfully for president three times (2005, 2009, and 2014), while Quiroga served as head of state from 2001 to 2002 and has also been a three-time presidential candidate.
  • Both opposition leaders have vowed to dismantle MAS's state-led economic model, which many Bolivians blame for the country's economic woes.
  • The only left-wing candidate with a chance of reaching a runoff, Andronico Rodriguez, is polling in fifth place with 5.5%, while President Luis Arce's backed candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, is polling below 3%.
  • A runoff, which would be unprecedented in Bolivia, is set for October 19 if no candidate secures over 50% of the vote, or at least 40% with a 10-point margin over the runner-up.
  • In addition to the president and vice president, Bolivians will also elect 36 senators and 130 deputies.
  • The election is taking place amid deep polarization and a bitter feud between Arce and his former mentor Morales, which has fractured the left and eroded MAS's popularity.
  • Morales is under arrest warrant on charges of 'aggravated rape with human trafficking' and has been living in Cochabamba for several months, avoiding arrest.

Statistics:

  • 8 million citizens are expected to vote in the presidential election.
  • 2.4 million people have been lifted out of poverty since Morales' presidency.
  • Inflation hit 24.8% in July 2025, the highest since at least 2008.
  • The basic food basket has shrunk, and dollars are disappearing due to the economic crisis.
  • 5.5% of the vote is the polling percentage for the only left-wing candidate with a chance of reaching a runoff, Andronico Rodriguez.
  • 3% is the polling percentage for President Luis Arce's backed candidate, Eduardo del Castillo.

Sources:

  • Anadolu Agency, Bolivian Business Owners Speak Out Against Economic Crisis Ahead of Presidential Elections
  • Anadolu Agency, Morales Signals Desire to Avoid Arrest Ahead of Election
  • Anadolu Agency, Bolivia Set for Historic Presidential Election Amid Deep Polarization

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