Nigeria's Fragile Democracy: The Rise of Political Violence

The 2027 general elections are still a year away, but the country is already gripped by a surge in violence and thuggery, fuelling anxiety among citizens, politicians, and security stakeholders. The rise in political violence, particularly in states where opposition parties are challenging ruling party dominance, has sparked concerns about the state of Nigeria's fragile democracy. The silence from authorities, particularly the presidency and police high command, is interpreted as tacit approval, while civil society organisations point to a culture of silence that fuels political violence.

Key Takeaways:

• Between August and early September, multiple cases of political violence were recorded in Kaduna, Katsina, Kogi, Kebbi, Jigawa, and Lagos states, raising concerns about the state of Nigeria's democracy.
• The premature commencement of political campaigns, despite warnings from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), has intensified competition and created flashpoints for clashes.
• Political thugs are being recruited ahead of schedule, while rival camps increasingly battle for control of public spaces.
• Civil society organisations and political scientists have observed that thuggery persists because political elites benefit from it, with security agencies suspected of compromise.
• The police must demonstrate neutrality and adopt decisive actions to protect lives and property, not offer excuses.
• The culture of silence that fuels political violence must be addressed, and the government must ensure that the rule of law applies without fear or favour.

Statistics:

• More than 800 people were killed in post-election violence following Goodluck Jonathan's victory in the 2011 elections across 12 northern states, according to Human Rights Watch.
• Thousands of people were displaced, and homes, places of worship, and government buildings were destroyed in the 2011 post-election violence.
• In November 2019, Mrs. Salome Abuh, a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leader, was brutally murdered by thugs in Kogi State.
• The Nigeria Police Force has been accused of compromise and complicity in political violence, with allegations of recruiting non-state actors with tacit backing from state officials.

Sources:

• "Nigeria's democracy in the dock: The crisis of political violence" published in The Guardian, citing Human Rights Watch.
• Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
• The Guardian, citing eyewitness accounts and police reports.
• The Guardian, citing civil society organisations and political scientists.